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Yields Pressure Risk Assets

Treasury yields are pushing higher as oil and inflation fears keep investors on edge.

Author

Elie Zakhour
September 25, 2026

Market Snapshot

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Market News

Yields Are Calling the Shots

Stocks struggled for direction Thursday as another bout of bond volatility kept investors cautious. The S&P 500 finished almost perfectly flat, down 0.02%, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.01% and the Dow lost 0.31%. Underneath the indexes, eight of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors fell as rising oil prices and expectations for further Fed tightening kept pressure on risk assets.

The bond market remained the bigger story. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2004, while the 10-year briefly reached about 5.20%. Treasury bought back roughly $4.1 billion of long-dated debt in an expanded operation, but that did little to stop the selloff. Brent crude also jumped more than 3% to nearly $107 after a Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia revived supply concerns.

The labor market also remained strong, with weekly jobless claims falling to 197,000, below the 201,000 economists expected and near their lowest levels in decades. That resilience suggests the economy is still holding up despite higher rates, giving the Fed more room to stay focused on inflation. Markets are now assigning roughly a 70% chance of another quarter-point rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting, according to CME FedWatch, as persistent inflation and elevated oil prices keep pressure on policymakers.

There was some relief Friday morning. Brent pulled back toward $105 a barrel, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edged higher. Treasury yields, however, remained near their multi-decade highs. Meanwhile, Trump and Xi’s Washington summit delivered few major breakthroughs, though the U.S.-China trade truce remains in place through Jan. 10.

Peel Take: The bond market is once again calling the shots. Oil near $107 is keeping inflation fears alive, while expectations for further Fed tightening are keeping pressure on yields. Markets are now pricing roughly a 70% chance of another quarter-point hike at the Fed’s next meeting. Strong growth and earnings are keeping stocks from cracking, but until oil or yields cool down, equities will have to keep swimming against the current.

What's Ripe

Everpure Inc (P) 11.15% 

  • Everpure jumped 11.15%, making it the S&P 500’s best-performing stock, after management laid out a stronger long-term growth outlook at its analyst day.

  • The data-storage company expects fiscal 2028 revenue of $7.0 billion to $7.3 billion, with management pointing to hyperscaler and AI-related markets as key drivers of its expanded growth opportunity.

  • Peel Take: AI’s appetite for data isn’t slowing down, and Everpure is positioning itself to feed it. More hyperscaler business could turn the AI infrastructure boom into faster revenue growth, and investors clearly liked what they heard.

Meta Platforms Inc. (META) 4.50% 

  • Meta rose 4.5% after its Connect event, where the company unveiled a new lineup of AI glasses, brought Muse to its glasses, and introduced the pocket-sized Muse Charm.

  • Wall Street reacted positively to the broader AI push, with JPMorgan raising its price target to $920 from $820. The rally lifted Meta’s market value to roughly $1.98 trillion.

  • Peel Take: Meta wants AI to move beyond the screen and into devices people use every day. Investors are buying into that vision for now, pushing the company within striking distance of the exclusive $2 trillion club.

What's Rotten

Gen Digital Inc. (GEN) 12.05%

  • Gen Digital plunged 12.05%, making it the S&P 500’s worst-performing stock, after reports that the cybersecurity company made a preliminary takeover approach for GoDaddy. GoDaddy shares rose on the news while Gen sold off.

  • The talks are still early and no deal terms have been announced, but investors immediately started weighing the potential cost and execution risk of a large acquisition. Gen finished Thursday at $23.07, giving it a market cap of roughly $13.8 billion.

  • Peel Take: Gen’s selloff shows how quickly investors can punish a potential buyer when a deal looks large relative to its own size. GoDaddy, meanwhile, benefited from the possibility of a takeover premium.

Oracle Corp. (ORCL) 3.47%

  • Oracle fell about 3.5% after issuing a force majeure notice tied to Project Jupiter, its massive planned New Mexico data center, as the project faces power and regulatory challenges. Oracle is seeking protection from higher payments if the campus fails to come online on schedule in 2028.

  • Importantly, Oracle is not walking away from the project, and the campus is still scheduled for 2028. But the move renewed concerns around the cost and execution risks of its massive AI infrastructure buildout.

  • Peel Take: AI’s infrastructure boom is running into the realities of building at massive scale. Oracle is still committed to Project Jupiter, but power, permitting, and financing risks can turn ambitious data-center plans into very expensive waiting games.

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A company earns a 20% ROIC on $500 million of invested capital. If it reinvests 40% of its after-tax operating profit at the same ROIC, what is its implied growth rate?

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