Yields Keep Climbing

Stocks fell as oil surged above $90 and Treasury yields remained elevated into Wednesday.

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Stocks Slide as Oil and Bond Yields Jump

Wall Street started September in the red Tuesday as surging oil prices and a deepening global bond selloff pressured stocks. The S&P 500 fell 0.71% to 7,631.47, the Dow dropped 419 points, or 0.79%, to 52,766.88, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.03% to 26,099.77. Higher Treasury yields weighed on rate-sensitive growth stocks, while the semiconductor index fell 2.1%. Nvidia slipped 1.4%, with investors already cautious heading into September, historically the weakest month for U.S. equities.

Oil added another inflation headache. U.S. crude jumped 5.2% to settle at $90.22 a barrel, while Brent rose 4.6% to $94.65 after fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian threats against Gulf oil exports revived concerns about supply disruptions. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.8%, adding pressure to stocks as the broader global bond selloff pushed borrowing costs higher. Energy was the only S&P 500 sector to finish higher Tuesday.

Investors also digested mixed labor-market data. U.S. job openings edged higher to 7.27 million in July, but hiring fell by 278,000 to 5.05 million, pointing to a labor market with increasingly limited churn. The data did little to ease inflation concerns, with markets pricing roughly a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September. For now, Wall Street is watching oil, bond yields, and upcoming economic data for clues about where markets go next.

Peel Take: Tuesday was pretty simple: oil went up, yields went up, and stocks went down. Neither move is great for a market that is already trading at high valuations, especially in tech. The bigger question is whether this is just an ugly start to September or the beginning of a longer pullback. If oil cools and yields come back down, buyers could return quickly. But if crude stays above $90 and inflation concerns keep building, expectations for another Fed hike will be harder to shake. After a strong August, September is already reminding investors that the easy part might be over.

What's Ripe

ExxonMobil (XOM) 2.22% 

  • Exxon rose as oil prices surged, with Brent crude climbing 4.6% and U.S. crude closing above $90 a barrel amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions. Higher oil prices generally mean more revenue and profits for major producers like Exxon.

  • Energy was one of the few areas of the market benefiting from Tuesday’s geopolitical concerns. Exxon closed at about $164.55, even as the S&P 500 fell 0.7%.

  • Peel Take: The rest of Wall Street saw $90 oil and panicked about inflation. Exxon saw $90 oil and called it Tuesday. As long as tensions keep crude elevated, energy companies have a pretty obvious advantage: the thing everyone else is paying more for is exactly what they sell.

Medtronic (MDT) 1.53% 

  • Medtronic reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and revenue, with adjusted EPS of $1.45 versus $1.39 expected and revenue reaching $9.8 billion.

  • The medical-device company also raised its full-year sales and earnings outlook, giving investors more confidence that its strong start to the year can continue.

  • Peel Take: On a day when almost everything was red, Medtronic did the easiest thing you can do to make investors happy: beat expectations and raise the forecast. No AI hype or oil drama needed. Sometimes actually making more money than Wall Street expected still works.

What's Rotten

Axon Enterprise (AXON) 8.52%

  • Axon was one of Tuesday's biggest losers as rising Treasury yields hit expensive growth stocks particularly hard. The 10-year yield reached about 4.79%, making investors less willing to pay high prices for future growth.

  • Investors were also concerned about pressure on Axon's margins and cash generation, adding company-specific worries to an already difficult day for growth stocks.

  • Peel Take: Axon's problem wasn't that the business suddenly fell apart Tuesday. It's that expensive stocks don't get much forgiveness when interest rates rise and investors already have questions about profitability. An 8% drop is what happens when a high valuation meets a market that suddenly wants proof instead of promises.

Dell Technologies (DELL) 6.98%

  • Dell dropped sharply during regular trading as investors took profits and reduced risk ahead of its earnings report. The stock had already rallied more than 250% this year, leaving expectations extremely high going into the results.

  • Investors were also worried about AI-server profitability and rising costs, even though demand for Dell's AI infrastructure has been extremely strong.

  • Peel Take: This one has a plot twist: Dell got smoked during the day, then jumped about 7% after hours after crushing earnings and raising its outlook. AI-server demand is clearly still there, the market was just nervous that Dell couldn't clear a bar that had gotten ridiculously high. Tuesday's regular-session selloff looked a lot less scary once the actual numbers arrived.

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