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The Independence Test
The Supreme Court temporarily blocks Trump from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

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Market Snapshot

š Banana Bits
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 52,000 for the first time as Alphabet officially joins the index.
The Supreme Court temporarily blocks Trump from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Rocket Lab agrees to acquire Iridium in a major move to expand its space business.
Comcast plans to spin off NBCUniversal and Sky as a standalone public company.
Sticky inflation keeps the prospect of additional Fed rate hikes firmly on the table.
Market News
Inflation Can Wait... Apparently
After a difficult week that saw the Nasdaq fall 4.6% and the S&P 500 lose 2%, Wall Street rebounded.
The S&P 500 climbed 1.2% to 7,440.43.
The Nasdaq gained 2.1% to 25,820.14.
The Dow Jones closed above 52,000 for the first time in its history.
Stocks broadly moved higher as investors welcomed a break from the recent selloff.
Catalyst No. 1 came from a marble building, not a trading floor. The Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that President Trump cannot, for now, remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, with Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Kavanaugh joining the three liberal justices.
Markets translated the legalese instantly: the Fed stays independent, which means monetary policy remains (theoretically) about the economy rather than politics. The same Court separately expanded the Presidentās power to fire officials at other agencies⦠but the part Wall Street cared about was the central bank, and that part went the marketās way.
Catalyst No. 2 was not exactly āgood news,ā but it was less-bad news. The U.S. and Iran were working through a fragile pause in strikes and a path back toward talks after a messy weekend of tit-for-tat escalation.
Oil still settled higher on Monday, so this was not a clean āoil risk is goneā tape, but traders treated the absence of a wider worst-case spiral as reason enough to put risk back on.

Then thereās the Dow. Effective Monday, Alphabet replaced Verizon in the 30-stock index. S&P Dow Jones Indices said Verizonās low share price had left it at only about half a percentage point of the price-weighted Dow, while Alphabet gives the index broader exposure to advertising, cloud, AI, hardware, autonomous mobility, healthcare tech, and media distribution.
The divisor was adjusted before the market opened, so the Dow didn't rise solely due to the index change. Even so, the addition gives the index greater exposure to large technology companies.
Alphabet gained about 4.8%, while Verizon dropped around 5.3%. Beyond the index change, it reflects the market's growing preference for technology companies tied to AI and cloud services.
The cloud on the horizon? Inflation. May PCE inflation hit 4.1% year over year, the first reading above 4% in three years, while CPI showed a similar 4.2% print. That has flipped the Fed conversation from āwhen cuts?ā to āare hikes back?ā just as the June jobs report lands Thursday morning, July 2, before a Friday market closure for Independence Day.
Peel Take: The rebound was driven more by easing fears than improving fundamentals. Investors welcomed signs of Fed independence, reduced geopolitical tensions, and renewed confidence in AI, but inflation remains elevated, and the possibility of further rate hikes is still on the table. With narrow market leadership, sticky inflation, and a busy week ahead, volatility is likely to remain high.
What's Ripe
Iridium Communications (IRDM) 25.4%
Rocket Lab is acquiring Iridium for roughly $8 billion, about $54/share, consisting of $27 in cash plus Rocket Lab stock, representing a roughly 24% premium to Iridiumās prior close. The deal is expected to close in mid-2027.
Iridiumās established low-Earth-orbit satellite network, global L-band spectrum, and more than 2.5 million subscribers across government, defense, aviation, maritime, and commercial markets. The acquirer also ripped. Rocket Lab closed up about 15.9%, meaning everyone at this wedding got cake.
Peel Take: Getting bought at a fat premium is the closest thing to winning the lottery a public shareholder gets, so congrats to the IRDM bagholders-turned-winners. The real tell is that Rocket Labās stock rose on news that it is spending $8B; acquirers usually get punished for opening the wallet.
Tesla (TSLA) 8.5%
Tesla led the Magnificent Seven rebound and helped drag the Nasdaq out of last weekās tech funk. The bull case remains the same high-octane blend: robotaxi hopes, FSD progress, AI optionality, and expectations around Q2 deliveries.
Traders rotated back out of last weekās defensive hidey-holes and into high-beta growth. When risk appetite comes back, TSLA tends to be first in line at the buffet.
Peel Take: Tesla is less a car company and more the marketās mood ring. The +8.5% is impressive, but the robotaxi dream still has to grow from pilot-stage sizzle into an actual, scalable fleet before the $1T+ valuation math fully pencils out.
What's Rotten
TopBuild (BLD) 15.5%
TopBuild missed the rally by a mile. Shares fell about 15% after shareholders approved QXOās acquisition of the building-products company.
The strange part is that BLD is the target, not the acquirer. The original deal valued TopBuild at $505/share, but shareholders can elect either $505 in cash or 20.2 QXO shares, subject to proration. With QXO at around $17.82, the stock-election value was roughly $360, which is where BLD landed.
Peel Take: Nothing ruins an acquisition premium like the fine print. TopBuild holders were staring at a sexy $505 cash headline, but Mondayās tape cared a lot more about the QXO-stock side of the deal, and that math looked way less sexy. When a target drops 15% after shareholders approve the buyout, that is the market yelling: āRead the proration rules.ā Not rotten because TopBuild suddenly forgot how insulation works; rotten because merger math can turn a premium into a banana peel fast.
Verizon (VZ) 5.2%
Verizon got kicked out of the Dow after 22 years to make room for Alphabet, an ego bruise, a relevance bruise, and a source of index-rebalance selling pressure. It also announced a 50/50 international joint venture with the U.K.ās BT, combining roughly $4B in annual revenue, more than 3,000 customers, and operations across 180+ countries. Verizon will make a $625M equalization payment tied to the deal.
And because telecom investors needed one more punch to the face, Verizon said it expects to record a $700M-$800M second-quarter loss tied to classifying the contributed international business as held for sale.
Peel Take: Brutal triple bogey: demoted from the Dow, writing a check to a partner, and pre-announcing a chunky charge, all in one news cycle. The dividend crowd will still hang around, but stocks get booted from the Dow when they stop mattering inside a price-weighted index.
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š¦ Deal Dispatch
M&A, IPOs, And Other Notable Transactions
Rocket Lab agrees to acquire Iridium in an approximately $8 billion cash-and-stock deal.
Comcast moves forward with plans to spin off NBCUniversal and Sky into a separate public company.
Verizon and BT form a global enterprise joint venture to expand their international business services.
OpenAI is reportedly considering delaying its IPO until 2027 to pursue a higher valuation.
šThe Daily Poll
The Supreme Court temporarily blocked the removal of a Fed governor. Should central banks stay independent from politics? |
Previous Poll:
Memory chip shortages are pushing up electronics prices. Which gadget would you hate to pay more for?
Smartphone: 61.0% // Laptop: 22.0% // Gaming console: 7.3% // Other: 9.7%
Banana Brain Teaser
Previous
David has d books, which is 3 times as many as Jeff has and 1/2 as many as Paula has. How many books do the three of them have altogether, in terms of d?
Answer: 10d/3
Today
A researcher plans to identify each participant in a certain medical experiment with a code consisting of either a single letter or a pair of distinct letters written in alphabetical order. What is the least number of letters that can be used if there are 12 participants, and each participant is to receive a different code?
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Chris, Vyom, Ankit, Mitchell, Fernanda, Nick, & Patrick


