The Hike Is Almost Here

Markets expect 25 basis points today. What comes next matters more.

Author

Josh Banuelos
September 16, 2026

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Market News

Oil surges, yields hit 5%, and the Fed is up next

Wall Street finished lower Tuesday as investors dealt with another jump in oil prices and borrowing costs. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,585.73, the Dow dropped 328 points, or 0.6%, to 52,093.11, and the Nasdaq lost 0.8% to 25,981.57.

Oil was one of Tuesday’s biggest pressure points. WTI jumped 4.4% to $105.83, while Brent rose 2.9% to $108.75, after disruptions to Saudi exports intensified supply concerns. By Wednesday morning, some of that pressure had eased, with WTI slipping to around $104.42 and Brent to $107.92 as Saudi Arabia offered additional crude through Oman and API data showed an unexpected 7.1 million-barrel build in U.S. crude inventories. Oil remains above $100, though, keeping inflation and transportation-cost concerns firmly in the picture.

The bond market added even more pressure, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 5.00% from 4.97% on Monday after briefly touching 5.04% earlier Tuesday. Higher yields raise borrowing costs for consumers and businesses while making bonds more attractive relative to stocks. AI stocks were steadier after Monday’s sharp selloff, with Nvidia gaining 0.6% and AMD rising 2.2%. Crypto had a much rougher session, with Coinbase falling 10.1% as the Senate failed to advance legislation aimed at creating a new regulatory framework for digital assets.

Now almost all the attention is on Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision, with markets expecting a quarter-point interest-rate increase. The hike itself is largely priced in, so the bigger question is what the Fed says about what comes next. Investors will be watching for signs of whether this is a limited response to stubborn inflation or the start of a broader tightening cycle. With oil still above $100 and Treasury yields elevated, any signal that additional hikes are likely could add further pressure to financial conditions and stocks.

Peel Take: Tuesday's message was pretty simple: $100+ oil and a 5% 10-year Treasury yield are not a great combination for stocks. Neither means the market is about to collapse, but both make it harder to justify paying high prices for companies whose biggest profits are still years away. The Fed now gets the final word Wednesday. A quarter-point hike is largely expected, so the bigger question is whether policymakers signal that this is a limited move or that more tightening may be needed. With oil still elevated and borrowing costs already climbing, any hint of a longer hiking cycle would give investors another reason to stay cautious.

What's Ripe

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) 13.55% 

  • Skyworks surged 13.55% to $90.00, making it the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 on Tuesday. The rally followed renewed optimism around its pending merger with Qorvo after CEO Philip Brace said he remained highly confident the deal would close by the end of the company’s fiscal year, potentially as soon as early October. Qorvo also rallied sharply.

  • The $22 billion combination would bring together two major suppliers of radio-frequency and analog chips, creating a larger competitor across mobile, aerospace, defense, and other semiconductor markets.

  • Peel Take: Skyworks gave investors something they rarely get in a nervous market: a concrete company-specific catalyst. Tuesday’s move was less about the broader AI rebound and more about growing confidence that the Qorvo merger is finally nearing the finish line. For shareholders, getting regulatory uncertainty out of the way would clear one of the biggest overhangs on the story.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) 2.19% 

  • AMD gained 2.19% Tuesday, recovering part of Monday’s AI-driven selloff as semiconductor stocks stabilized. Nvidia also rose 0.6%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index finished 0.4% higher.

  • The rebound came one day after AI-linked stocks were hit by concerns that calls to slow advanced AI development could eventually weigh on the massive infrastructure spending boom supporting chip demand.

  • Peel Take: Monday’s AI scare hit chip stocks hard, but Tuesday showed investors weren’t ready to abandon the trade altogether. AMD recovered some of its losses even as the broader market fell, suggesting buyers were willing to step back in after the pullback. The bigger question is whether concerns around future AI spending fade quickly or become a more lasting overhang.

What's Rotten

Coinbase (COIN) 10.10%

  • Coinbase plunged 10.10% to $172.11 as Bitcoin fell roughly 4% and the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, a major bill aimed at establishing a federal regulatory framework for digital assets.

  • The procedural vote fell short of the 60 votes needed to advance, dealing a setback to an industry that had pushed heavily for clearer federal rules. The legislation could still be reconsidered, so Tuesday’s vote did not permanently kill it.

  • Peel Take: Coinbase basically got hit from both sides Tuesday: crypto prices fell and Washington added another question mark around regulation. When your business depends heavily on people wanting to trade crypto, a Bitcoin selloff is already bad enough. Adding regulatory uncertainty on top makes for an especially rotten day.

Axon Enterprise (AXON) 9.81%

  • Axon fell 9.81% to $442.08 after announcing plans to offer $1 billion of 0% convertible senior notes due 2031, with underwriters receiving an option for another $150 million.

  • Because the notes can eventually be converted into Axon shares, investors focused on the potential dilution to existing shareholders. Axon plans to use part of the proceeds for capped-call transactions designed to reduce that dilution risk, with the remainder available for general corporate purposes and possible acquisitions.

  • Peel Take: Axon isn’t paying regular interest on these notes, so this wasn’t really a story about expensive debt. The bigger concern was potential dilution from a $1 billion-plus convertible offering. The capped calls should help soften that risk, but shareholders still had a lot of new capital to digest at once.

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