In this issue of the peel:

• 💸 Markets are set to stage a comeback after Trump backs down from China.

• 🤷‍♂️ Smartphones, computers, and other critical electronic products are now exempt from Trump’s tariffs.

• 👔 Hedge fund legend and Bridgewater founder, Ray Dalio, is worried about something worse than a recession.

Market Snapshot

Banana Bits

• Equity indices finally ended in the green after one of the most volatile weeks of trading ever.

• When legendary macro investor Ray Dalio shares his thoughts on economic policy, you should listen.

• Trump is exempting smartphones, computers, chips, and most technology from tariffs…. So, that’s pretty much everything, right? 

• China is flexing its muscles and showing it’s not backing down after urging the US to cancel all tariffs.

• President Trump’s stock is down right now, along with the market, based on recent approval rating polls.

• While cringey millennials were panicking over the market selloff, Gen-Z traders were making $40k in one hour.

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Macro Monkey Says

180 Policy Shift

The White House announced that they are exempting a broad swathe of Chinese electronics components from tariffs. At this point, I think Trump and his buddies are just having fun, holding us hostage with these negotiations, and laughing at our panic. That’s gotta be the only rational explanation. 

To refresh your memory, after the White House placed astronomical tariff rates on pretty much every major country we do business with, the market predicted financial armageddon. 

Just a few days later, Trump announced a delay in the implementation of the new policy, which confirmed what most people already suspected: Those tariff numbers were so laughably high that they couldn’t be real. Still, even with the delay, he maintained a hard stance on China, enacting a 144% tariff.

Now, the boys in the White House are softening their stance once again and exempting a range of electronic products, including: Smartphones, Laptops and computers, Chips, Semiconductor manufacturing equipment, iPhones, Apple Watches, etc. 

You get the point. Pretty much every major thing that comes in from China is exempted. So, in effect, these tariffs really don’t amount to much, and the last couple of weeks of trading activity were just a massive opportunity to buy some cheap stocks and ride the wave higher. 

For context, the U.S.-China trade war has intensified in recent weeks but has been bubbling for years, even during Trump’s first presidency back in 2016. 

After years of a silent battle, the lid came off, with the US placing a cumulative tariff of 145% on China, and China reciprocating with a 125% tariff. Did I mention how insanely hilarious these numbers are? 

Even after Trump backed down, China's Ministry of Commerce acknowledged the US exemptions as a "minor corrective measure" but maintained that more substantial action was necessary. The ministry has called on Washington to fully cancel the tariffs, viewing them as unilateral and detrimental to global trade relations. 

The Takeaway? 

The Trump administration's decision to exempt key tech products from the latest tariffs appears to be a strategic move to mitigate domestic economic repercussions and consumer price increases. 

However, the broader trade conflict between the US and China remains unresolved, with both nations maintaining high tariffs and expressing firm stances. The situation continues to evolve, and stakeholders are closely monitoring for further developments.

Career Corner

Question

When an application for a program asks you to detail your individual experiences, is it ok to copy and paste the role description from your resume, even when it asks you also to submit the resume?

Answer

It’s fine, but I think the better approach is to rephrase a bit so you can use the space to your advantage, highlight your biggest achievements, and write in prose instead of bullets. But in the end, it probably won’t make a huge difference either way, so if you’re tight for time, it’s ok.

Head Mentor, WSO Academy

Check out WSO Academy!

What's Ripe

Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) 27.7% 

• Recursion’s stock jumped based on news that the FDA would replace the use of animals in drug-testing with Artificial Intelligence. 

• RXRX, which is backed by Nvidia, uses AI in its drug discovery and development process. 

• According to the FDA, it will begin to encourage the inclusion of New Approach Methodologies (NAMs) data in investigational new drug applications, making companies like Recursion a hot commodity.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 5.3%

• AMD’s stock is recovering after Trump took a second to cool his head off. He was going full steam with Chinese tariffs as well as a separate limit on chips. 

• AMD, which gets a lot of its products from China, rightfully sold off. But now that’s all off the table (for now), so the stock is rallying.

What's Rotten

Texas Instruments (TXN) 5.8%

• While most other chip makers are rallying on the Trump chip reversal, Texas Instruments has fallen victim to China’s newest policy. 

• According to the China Semiconductor Industry Association, customs determines the origin of imports by where chips are manufactured, not the home country of origin, putting further pressure on TXN, which has manufacturing plants in the US and in the Chengdu High-Tech Zone. 

• The Chinese government has been targeting US chipmakers since early this year, particularly to look into chip grants and alleged dumping, to ensure that the US was not unlawfully subsidizing chipmakers and undercutting Chinese products.

AppLovin (APP) 5.3%

• ​Tech stocks rebounded nicely last week all across the board, except for AppLovin, which sat this rally out. 

• The company is being sued by Levi & Korsinsky, and the law firm is also urging other shareholders to join in on the suit. The firm claims that shareholders who lost money between May ‘23 and Feb ‘25 were victims of AppLovin’s “dishonest advertising practices.”

Thought Banana

A Dire Diagnosis 

Ray Dalio is sounding the alarms—and this time, it’s not just about a looming recession. 

The billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest macro hedge fund, took to NBC’s “Meet the Press” to voice concerns that the US is facing something potentially worse than the 2008 financial crisis—or even the economic unraveling of the 1970s.

What’s keeping Dalio up at night? A toxic cocktail of surging government debt, worsening political polarization, and disruptive policy shifts—chief among them, President Trump’s aggressive trade stance. 

“You can't just change things without consequences,” Dalio said, referring to the Trump administration’s surprise implementation of 125% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports. While Trump offered exemptions for certain consumer tech, Dalio likened the policy to “throwing rocks into a finely-tuned machine.”

He warns that these moves are eroding investor confidence and straining global supply chains at a time when the US is already fiscally vulnerable. With debt-to-GDP levels climbing, interest costs ballooning, and political division reaching Cold War levels, Dalio sees a “perfect storm” forming—one that could lead to a systemic economic crisis, not just a cyclical slowdown.

Importantly, Dalio isn’t just throwing darts at the current administration—he sees the issue as structural. He says that even the Fed’s monetary tools won’t be enough to bail us out this time without cohesive long-term planning and global cooperation.

The Takeaway?

Ray Dalio isn’t known for hyperbole, so when he says “worse than a recession,” it’s worth paying attention. 

His warning is less about short-term volatility and more about fundamentally unraveling the systems underpinning the global economy. If policymakers don’t act with nuance and foresight, we may not be heading for a downturn—we may be redefining what one even looks like.

The Big question: If Ray Dalio’s right and we’re staring down a crisis bigger than 2008, is anyone in D.C. even remotely qualified to handle it—or are we all just passengers on the Titanic at this point?

Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

The letters D, G, I, I, and T can be used to form 5-letter strings such as DIGIT or DGIIT. Using these letters, how many 5-letter strings can be formed in which the two occurrences of the letter I are separated by at least one other letter?

Answer: 36

Today

For the past n days, the average daily production at a company was 50 units. If today’s production of 90 units raises the average to 55 units per day, what is the value of n?

Send your guesses to [email protected]

How Would You Rate Today's Peel?

Happy Investing,
Chris, Vyom, Ankit & Patrick

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