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Market Snapshot

📉 Banana Bits

• Oil surged back above $110 as markets braced for Trump’s Iran deadline.

• B*tcoin prices stayed in focus as cr*pto markets tracked broader volatility.

• Stocks fell while oil rose on doubts around a U.S.-Iran deal.

• The S&P 500’s dividend yield has dropped to 50-year lows, raising concerns.

• The Dow fell 400 points as investors waited on the Iran deadline outcome.

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Market News

Markets Flip With Every Update

Today’s market news is mainly driven by rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerns about Iran and potential disruptions to oil supply.

WTI Oil prices have climbed above $110 per barrel, raising concerns about higher inflation and slowing economic growth. As a result, U.S. stocks are under some pressure, and investors are becoming more cautious.

Markets have also been highly reactive, moving up or down quickly in response to new headlines. Higher oil prices could also make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates anytime soon.

Different sectors are reacting differently, with energy companies benefiting while industries like airlines are struggling. Overall, the market today feels uncertain and heavily influenced by global events.

Looking at broader trends, markets are oscillating between optimism and concern. Sometimes stocks rise on hopes that tensions will ease, but those gains don’t always last.

Investors are still focused on inflation and what the Fed will do next with interest rates. The housing market is also still feeling pressure from relatively high mortgage rates. Rising energy prices are making people more worried about global growth and consumer spending.

Peel Take: Right now, markets are basically running on headlines and vibes. One update sparks optimism, the next brings everything back down, especially with oil above $110 keeping inflation fears front and center. Until things calm down, expect more reacting and less conviction.

What's Ripe

United Health Group (UNH) 9.4%

• The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) finalized a 2.48% average increase in Medicare Advantage payments for 2027, a "better-than-feared" outcome after an initial January 2026 proposal suggested a mere 0.09% hike. Investors reacted strongly because prior expectations were much lower, so this was a positive surprise.

• This higher-than-expected rate is expected to add over $13 billion in additional funding to Medicare Advantage plans next year, easing pressure on insurer profitability.

• Peel Take: What looked like a tiny bump turned into a pretty solid raise, and investors weren’t complaining. After bracing for almost nothing, a better-than-expected payout (and billions in extra funding) suddenly makes the outlook for insurers look a lot less stressful. Sometimes, all it takes is low expectations.

Broadcom Inc (AVGO) 6.2%

• Broadcom signed a long-term agreement with Google to develop and supply future generations of custom AI chips (Tensor Processing Units or TPUs) and networking components for Google's AI data centers through 2031.

• The deal signals long-term confidence in AI demand, with CEO Hock Tan projecting that Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue could exceed $100 billion by 2027.

• Peel Take: Locking in a long-term AI deal with Google is about as good as it gets right now. With demand for AI chips only going one way, Broadcom isn’t just riding the wave; it’s securing a front-row seat for the next few years.

What's Rotten

Apple Inc (AAPL) 2.1%

• Reports of delays in foldable iPhone development are raising concerns about the innovation pipeline. Weak sentiment in tech, driven by broader market uncertainty, also contributed.

• Multiple reports, including Nikkei Asia, indicate that Apple is facing "engineering challenges" during the early test-production phase of its first foldable iPhone. The drop in the stock price was exacerbated by broader tech-market uncertainty, which has created cautious sentiment among investors.

• Peel Take: Apple missing a beat on its next big product isn’t something investors love to see. With foldable delays raising questions about the innovation pipeline, and tech sentiment already shaky, even Apple isn’t immune to a little skepticism right now.

Delta Airlines (DAL) 1.8%

• Delta and other carriers are facing significant cost pressures from surging jet fuel prices driven by Middle East tensions, leading to higher checked baggage fees and higher ticket prices to offset them.

• Despite the costs, Delta CEO reported "great" passenger demand, which allowed the airline to maintain its revenue outlook and keep profits robust despite the fuel spike. While higher fees and robust travel demand have helped mitigate the impact, rising costs remain a threat to operating margins.

• Peel Take: Higher fuel costs are squeezing margins, but strong travel demand is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Delta’s basically passing some of the pain onto customers, and so far, they’re still willing to pay up.

🧠 Technical Trip

Interview Q&A from JPMorgan

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🦈 Deal Dispatch

M&A, IPOs, And Other Notable Transactions

• Ackman’s Pershing Square proposed a ~$60–64B merger with Universal Music Group.

• Margin pressure is driving a fresh wave of consolidation in food distribution.

• Paramount Skydance secured Gulf funding for its Warner Bros. deal, lifting shares.

Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

The probability that event M will NOT occur is 0.8, and the probability that event R will NOT occur is 0.6. If events M and R CANNOT both occur, which of the following is the probability that either event M or event R will occur?

Answer: 0.6

Today

If n is a positive integer and the product of all the integers from 1 to n, inclusive, is divisible by 990, what is the least possible value of n?

How Would You Rate Today's Peel?

Happy Investing,
Chris, Vyom, Ankit, Mithun, Colin & Patrick

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