Market Snapshot

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📉 Banana Bits

• Existing-home sales fell 5.5% in October to a 3.75 million annualized pace, the lowest since August 2010.

• Cisco reported record quarterly revenue of $18.5 billion and raised its annual outlook on strong AI networking demand.

• Applied Materials reported record quarterly revenue of $10.41 billion and forecast stronger-than-expected sales on AI chip demand.

• Corteva plunged 24.3% to $9.19, the S&P 500's worst performer, after cutting its annual profit outlook amid weakness in Brazil.

• MSCI will remove Strategy from its indexes after November 30, potentially triggering selling by index-tracking funds.

• Eli Lilly's weight-loss pill became China's first approved oral GLP-1 obesity treatment, ahead of rival Novo Nordisk.

Market News

The Jacket Era Ends

Well, that's not how any of us expected this week to go. Before Thursday's opening bell, Nvidia announced that Jensen Huang was stepping down as CEO, effective immediately. He co-founded the company in 1993 and has led it ever since, so this is a pretty big deal. His departure follows reports of extramarital affairs, including one involving a woman U.S. officials reportedly suspect of ties to Chinese intelligence. Nvidia's board says it has no reason to believe company secrets were compromised, and an independent investigation is underway. CFO Colette Kress is serving as interim CEO.

NVDA opened down roughly 13%, briefly sank more than 14%, and then staged a remarkable recovery, closing just 4.34% lower at $166.19. The S&P 500 finished down 0.35% at 7,592.40, the Nasdaq slipped 0.39% to 25,366.09, and the Dow lost 189 points (0.36%) to close at 52,297. Nvidia accounts for roughly 6% of the S&P 500, so the broader market held up relatively well considering the news.

Part of what helped was that Nvidia's competitors moved in the opposite direction. AMD and Broadcom were the S&P 500's two biggest gainers, rising 5.86% and 5.54%, respectively, helping offset some of Nvidia's losses.

What added pressure yesterday was the bond market. Treasuries were closed Wednesday for Veterans Day, and when trading resumed Thursday, the 10-year yield climbed roughly 12 basis points to 5.10%. Tuesday's CPI came in hot, with headline prices rising 0.4% and core prices up 0.3%. Markets were fully pricing in a December rate hike, with some probability of a larger 50-basis-point move. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also said further tightening would likely be needed, though she emphasized the Fed wasn't in a rush.

Oh, and oil. Prices jumped Thursday after reported attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and continued disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz raised fresh supply concerns. Trump also said the U.S. didn't need a deal with Iran. WTI settled up 2.6% at $88.74, while Brent rose 3.3% to $95.82. Higher oil prices only added to inflation concerns as investors weighed the possibility of further Fed tightening.

Small caps took a bigger hit, with the Russell 2000 falling 1.66%. Even gold dropped nearly 3% to below $3,900, as rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar weighed on the precious metal despite the geopolitical uncertainty.

Up next: October's PPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET today, followed by Nvidia's earnings on Tuesday.

Peel Take: Nvidia's relatively modest closing decline, despite losing the CEO who led it for more than three decades, was one of Thursday's more notable market developments. The company still has an established software ecosystem and major customer relationships, but Huang also played a central role in shaping its strategy, supply decisions, and regulatory discussions. The leadership transition introduces new questions about how those responsibilities will be managed going forward. Tuesday's earnings call could provide more clarity on the company's next steps.

💼 Career Watch

Planning to apply for Citi's 2028 Investment Banking Summer Analyst program? Applications could open in early 2027, based on previous recruiting timelines. If you're graduating in 2029, now is a good time to get ahead on technicals, networking, and interview preparation before applications go live.

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What's Ripe

HubSpot (HUBS) 6.39% 

• Interesting timing on this one. The same day Nvidia's longtime CEO stepped down, HubSpot brought its founder back. Brian Halligan co-founded the company and served as CEO for 16 years before stepping aside in 2021. As of Thursday, he's back in the role, replacing Yamini Rangan.

• The stock had nearly halved this year, falling from $401 at the end of 2025 to around $203 before Thursday's announcement. Shares finished the session up 6.39% at $215.84.

• Peel Take: Halligan's return comes at an important time for HubSpot as AI reshapes the customer relationship management market. The company has already been adjusting, moving two of its AI agents to outcome-based pricing in April and announcing layoffs affecting roughly 660 employees last month. Halligan told Bloomberg he wants to rebuild the company rather than see it shrink or get acquired by private equity. The focus now shifts to how that strategy translates into growth.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) 5.86% 

• Somebody's gotta benefit, right? AMD closed at $585.30, making it the S&P 500's best performer on Thursday. William Blair upgraded the stock to Outperform, citing opportunities from Nvidia's leadership uncertainty, Intel's server-chip delays, and improving growth expectations.

• Broadcom was right behind it, gaining 5.54% to $364.36, while Arista Networks added another 5.06%. AMD is now up roughly 30% since last Friday, a substantial rally for a company of its size.

• Peel Take: Nvidia's leadership change has brought renewed attention to AMD's position in the AI chip market. The company offers an alternative for data-center customers, while William Blair sees opportunities for further growth in its AI and server businesses. Still, Nvidia retains an established software ecosystem and major customer relationships. How much additional market share AMD can capture remains uncertain, particularly after a roughly 30% rally in just four trading sessions.

What's Rotten

Nebius (NBIS) 16.84%

• Imagine growing revenue 571% and getting sold like this. Nebius reported $980.8 million in Q3 revenue, well ahead of the $907.5 million analysts expected. But its outlook was less encouraging. Full-year revenue is now expected at the low end of its $3.0 billion–$3.4 billion range, as delays at third-party data centers push some capacity into 2027.

• Then there's the spending. Capex for 2026 is now expected to reach roughly $27 billion, up from the previous $20 billion–$25 billion range. The company also expects to spend another $40 billion–$45 billion in 2027.

• Peel Take: That's roughly $9 in planned capital spending for every $1 in expected revenue this year, reflecting the scale of Nebius's AI infrastructure expansion. But the company also reported stronger customer commitments, with prepayments on Q3 deals covering more than 100% of the associated capex, up from 50%–60% in Q2. Nebius expects prepayments and contract-backed financing to cover 75%–85% of its 2027 spending. The focus now is on how quickly the company can bring new capacity online and turn those investments into revenue.

Global Payments (GPN) 12.01%

• So much for those buyout talks. Reuters reported that CD&R and GTCR had walked away from early discussions to take Global Payments private after several weeks. Arranging financing for a transaction of this size, involving roughly $40 billion in enterprise value, proved difficult.

• Trading was briefly halted for volatility as shares sank to around $87 before closing down 12.01% at $88.19. GPN had surged nearly 13% on October 30 when the buyout reports first surfaced, and Thursday's decline erased most of those gains.

• Peel Take: Financing a roughly $40 billion take-private is no small task, particularly with elevated borrowing costs and significant debt already on the company's balance sheet. The discussions were still preliminary. Meanwhile, Global Payments recently reported 10% adjusted EPS growth and raised its annual Worldpay expense-synergy target to $650 million. With the buyout discussions on hold, attention returns to the company's operating performance and integration progress.

🧠 Technical Trip

Interview Q&A from Goldman Sachs

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🦈 Deal Dispatch

M&A, IPOs, And Other Notable Transactions

• Hancock Whitney is acquiring Trustmark in a $3.2 billion all-stock deal, creating a regional bank with roughly $58 billion in assets.

• JD.com completed its €1.34 billion acquisition of a 59.8% stake in German electronics retailer Ceconomy, owner of MediaMarkt and Saturn.

• Anthropic's IPO is reportedly six times oversubscribed ahead of its expected November 19 Nasdaq debut under the ticker ANT.

• OpenAI reportedly raised $15 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, roughly half its original fundraising target, according to CNBC.

• Keurig Dr Pepper priced a $2 billion stock offering at $34.50 per share to reduce debt ahead of its planned 2027 split.

📊The Daily Poll

Previous Poll:

What will the Fed do with interest rates in December?

Raise rates by 25 bps: 59.5% // Raise rates by 50 bps: 21.6% // Keep rates unchanged: 18.9%

Student Success Corner

Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

An investment has a 50% chance of gaining 80% and a 50% chance of losing 50% each year, independently. If you hold it for two years, what is the probability of finishing with more money than you started with?

Answer: 25%. Only two consecutive gains produce a profit.

Today

Four analysts must cross a bridge at night. They take 1, 2, 7, and 10 minutes to cross, respectively. Only two can cross at once, they must carry one shared flashlight, and a pair moves at the slower person's speed. What is the minimum total crossing time?

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Happy Investing,
Elie, Fernanda, Nick, & Patrick

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