Market Snapshot

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📉 Banana Bits

• Oil slipped below $100 as Iran diplomacy hopes and recovering Saudi exports eased supply fears

• AMD topped $1 trillion in market value for the first time amid its AI rally

• Bitcoin broke above $84K despite the Senate failing to advance the CLARITY Act

• Grail surged 34% after FDA staff raised no major concerns with its cancer test

• Novo Nordisk sank 8% after its long-term growth targets failed to reassure investors

Market News

Oil Under $100, Nasdaq at a Record

Monday was a good day if you owned tech and a rough one if you owned anything that pumps or refines oil. The Nasdaq closed at 27,122.09, up 2.26%, hitting a record for the first time since early June. The S&P 500 rose 1.49% to 7,764.70 and now sits less than half a percent below its August high. The Dow added 0.71% to 52,048.83, while the Russell 2000 gained 0.52%. Under the hood, more than half of S&P 500 stocks finished higher, so the rally had decent breadth. It just wasn’t everyone.

Start with oil, because that’s where the day really moved. WTI fell 4.5% to $95.78, its fourth straight decline and the lowest close in nearly two weeks. Brent also slipped, settling just above $100 at $100.34. The selloff came as Trump said he was “probably open” to meeting Iranian President Pezeshkian at the UN this week, while recovering Saudi crude flows through Hormuz added to the sense that supply risks may be easing. Energy was easily the worst-performing sector. Exxon fell 3.2%, ConocoPhillips 3.3%, while Marathon, Valero, and Phillips 66 all sold off sharply as investors questioned how long the war-driven refining boom can last.

Chips did the heavy lifting on the way up. Intel jumped 12.1% after reports that it was in talks with AUO on advanced glass-substrate packaging, building on last week’s news that SK Hynix is exploring ways to use Intel’s Ohio facility for U.S. memory production. AMD gained nearly 10% to a record $615.52, pushing its market value above $1 trillion for the first time. Qualcomm rose 9.3%, Micron 2.8%, and Nvidia 2.3%. Outside of semis, Meta surged 11.3% after Wells Fargo raised its price target to $796 ahead of Meta Connect on Wednesday.

Worth remembering where rates are while all this is happening. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% last Wednesday, its first hike in more than three years, and policymakers now see one more increase this year. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% on Friday before slipping back to 4.96% Monday as cheaper oil eased some inflation concerns. Gold futures fell 0.9% to $4,383.90, while the VIX barely moved, closing at 14.87.

Then the week gets loud. Wednesday brings Grail’s FDA panel, Meta Connect, and flash PMIs. Thursday has the Trump-Xi summit at the White House, with Costco reporting the same day. Fed officials are also speaking throughout the week, with New York Fed President John Williams among Tuesday’s speakers.

Peel Take: We'll say the quiet part. The Fed hiked for the first time in three years and the Nasdaq made a new high less than a week later anyway. Meanwhile, one hint of U.S.-Iran diplomacy helped knock nearly 5% off crude and took some pressure off inflation fears. Chips still led the leaderboard, but cheaper oil gave the whole rally a much friendlier backdrop.

What's Ripe

Intel (INTC) 12.14% 

• Intel jumped 12.1% as AI enthusiasm lifted chip stocks, helped by a report that it is in talks with Taiwan’s AUO on advanced packaging technology for co-packaged optics and high-density AI computing.

• The move also built on last week’s report that SK Hynix is exploring U.S. memory production with Intel, potentially using its Ohio facility. Tigress Financial recently raised its price target to $145 from $118, while Intel is now up about 230% this year.

• Peel Take: Not that long ago, Intel’s Ohio fab was mostly known for delays. Now SK Hynix is considering using part of it, Xeon demand is improving, and investors are starting to give Intel credit for its AI and manufacturing turnaround. The stock is up about 230% this year, though, so if you’re just showing up now, you’re buying the story when everyone can finally see it.

Meta (META) 11.43% 

• Wells Fargo bumped its price target to $796 from $640 and kept its Overweight rating, pointing to the early momentum behind Muse ahead of Meta Connect on Wednesday.

• Muse has already climbed to the top of Apple’s U.S. App Store, with free and paid tiers at $20 and $100 a month. But Oppenheimer’s Jason Helfstein says converting users into paying subscribers and earning consumer trust remain key hurdles.

• Peel Take: The thing to notice is that Wells Fargo put the note out before Connect, not after. Muse already has real early traction, but Meta still hasn’t shown what that translates to in paying subscribers. Monday’s 11% jump means investors are already pricing in plenty of success. Now Zuckerberg has to show that a chart-topping app can become a business.

What's Rotten

Novo Nordisk (NVO) 7.96%

• Novo held its Capital Markets Day in London and put some big numbers on the wall: more than $23 billion in risk-adjusted pipeline sales by 2035, more than five multi-blockbuster launches by 2030, and enough oral GLP-1 capacity to serve ten times as many obesity patients.

• But management also said adjusted operating margins should remain broadly stable through 2030, while investors pressed the company on pricing, its pipeline, and competition from Lilly. Novo is now down about 22% this year and more than 70% from its 2024 record high.

• Peel Take: Novo called a meeting to make everyone feel better and everyone left feeling worse. We get it. $23 billion sounds enormous, but that’s a 2035 pipeline target, and this stock used to be priced like the company that owned obesity. Now Lilly’s Zepbound is expected to outsell Wegovy by more than $7 billion this year. Wegovy built the category. Novo now has to prove it can keep up.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) 5.30%

• Marathon was the worst stock in the S&P 500, with Valero (-4.8%) and Phillips 66 (-4.2%) also sliding as Iran diplomacy hopes and recovering Saudi exports raised questions about how long the war-driven refining boom can last.

• MPC is still up about 147% this year and closed at an all-time high Friday. Analysts already expect 2027 earnings across Marathon, Valero, and Phillips 66 to fall about 18% on average, while the refining index sits 63% above its 200-day moving average with weekly RSI above 80.

• Peel Take: There was no new Marathon-specific bombshell Monday. Crack spreads are still wide, Yanbu loadings remain disrupted, and traffic through Hormuz is still below normal. What changed was how long investors think those conditions can last. A stock that’s up 147% on the year giving back 5% on one day of peace chatter is just what a war trade looks like from the inside.

🧠 Technical Trip

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🦈 Deal Dispatch

M&A, IPOs, And Other Notable Transactions

• Oura seeks up to $2.2B in its IPO at a roughly $15.6B valuation.

• Paramount clears the final hurdles to its $110B Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition after settling with 12 states and the Writers Guild.

• Priority Technology agrees to go private in a $1.6B deal led by CEO Thomas Priore.

• Telix agrees to acquire ITM for up to $2.35B in stock and milestone payments.

Student Success Corner

Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

A stock earns $4.00 of EPS and trades at 15× P/E. EPS rises 25%, but the P/E falls by 20%. What is the new stock price?

Answer: $60 per share

Today

A bank earns a 3.0% net interest margin on $20 billion of average earning assets. If NIM rises by 25 bps with assets unchanged, how much additional annual net interest income does it generate?

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Chris, Elie, Mitchell, Fernanda, Nick, & Patrick

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