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Markets Surge on Ceasefire

Markets Surge on Ceasefire

💥 Markets surge and oil sinks as Iran fires missiles at U.S air force bases in Qatar and Iraq.

Ankit Sinha
June 24, 2025

Silver banana goes to…

In this issue of the peel:

💥 Markets surge and oil sinks as Iran fires missiles at U.S air force bases in Qatar and Iraq.
🚖 Israel and Iran agree to a ceasefire set to begin at approximately midnight Tuesday EST, a definitive step towards the de-escalation of the current conflict.
🛒 Despite oil prices declining due to the easing fears of investors, Iran still has strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz, which they could shut down.

Market Snapshot

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Banana Bits

Tesla’s share price jumped over 8% today after they announced the rollout of their robotaxis over the weekend.
Amrize, the largest cement provider in North America, made its public market debut on Monday, increasing to a market capitalization of $22 billion.
Home sales rose in May despite a seemingly sluggish housing market.
Michelle Bowman, the Governor of the Fed, announced that she would be in favor of a July rate cut if inflation stays stagnant.
President Trump’s tax bill is nearing a vote in the Senate, but there are still disagreements among republicans on topics like Medicaid cuts.
The NYC Mayoral race is tightening as primary results show Zohran Mamdani in the lead.

The Daily Poll

Is the Strait of Hormuz too critical to risk?

Previous Poll:

Will China face a supply shock if Iran gets hit hard?

Yes: 37.5% // Only if War: 28.3% // Unlikely: 17.5% // No Idea: 16.7%

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Macro Monkey Says

Markets Climb Even as Missiles Fly

The markets had quite a ride today, as early in the day, markets were up due to the Governor of the Fed, Michelle Bowman, announcing that she would be in favor of a July rate cut. Then, markets slipped after Iran announced plans for significant retaliation.

After that happened, markets surged again after Iran launched missiles at U.S air bases in Qatar and Iraq that were mostly intercepted and led to zero casualties. This eased the nerves of investors, as many believe that Iran will not retaliate further to avoid escalating a larger conflict with the U.S.

Source

Furthermore, Donald Trump announced that Iran’s retaliation efforts were “very weak” and that Tehran’s actions were telegraphed. It is still extremely possible that Iran will fire on other U.S bases in the region in the coming days, but an escalation beyond that could mean a broader conflict.

Iran’s missiles that were fired at U.S bases in the region are essentially a way for Iran to claim that it retaliated against the U.S without getting themselves involved in a broader conflict.

Moreover, the U.S has expressed interest in a regime change within Iran, and a larger Iranian conflict with the U.S could result in a regime change, which the Iranian government likely wants to avoid.

Additionally, Iran and Israel’s announced ceasefire is a significant sign that this situation is de-escalating, with oil prices decreasing and S&P 500 futures increasing in response to the news.

The markets will likely continue to respond to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East accordingly, and if Iran escalates the situation, this will probably result in a larger conflict, leading to a market selloff.

The Takeaway?

Something important to keep in mind as we continue to monitor the situation is that selloffs that occur due to geopolitical tensions like these are typically quite short-lived (hopefully), according to strategists at Morgan Stanley. Furthermore, Iran is likely not looking to engage in a broader conflict, as that would probably not end well for not only their government, but their people as well.

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What's Ripe

GeneDx Holdings Corp. (WGS) 19.0%

GeneDx Holdings, a genetic testing services company, witnessed a significant increase in their share price after the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) recommended genome and exome as first-tier diagnostic tests for children.
This is essentially a major endorsement of GeneDx’s services for parents who have children with certain developmental delays or disabilities, potentially leading to more business for GeneDx.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) 8.23%

Tesla’s stock price skyrocketed yesterday as they announced over the weekend the launch of their robotaxi service. As part of this service, Tesla owners would be able to rent their cars to others, potentially earning more than their monthly payments.

What's Rotten

Hims & Hers Health Inc. (HIMS) 34.63%

Hims & Hers Health, a fast-growing telehealth company, saw massive losses yesterday as Novo Nordisk (a healthcare company) abruptly terminated its contract with Hims. They cited the reason as “illegal mass compounding” of unauthorized versions of their weight loss drug with misleading marketing strategies that posed a risk to patient health.
Novo also said that Hims continued to sell a drug called compounded semaglutide after the FDA declared shortages were over, which is a violation of FDA rules. This also removes a key source of revenue for Hims, further incentivizing investors to sell.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) 9.8%

SMCI’s share price fell yesterday after the company announced a $2 billion issuance of senior convertible notes, raising investor concerns surrounding share dilution. SMCI cited that the debt issuance is to fund working capital and repay debt, but that wasn’t enough to convince many investors.

Thought Banana

Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz?

If you know oil, you know about the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, only being 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, with relatively shallow waters.

The shallow depths of the waters allow for potential mines, and their close proximity to Iran also allows for the Iranian military to attack any ships passing through. Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz witnesses over 16.5 million barrels of crude oil passing every single day, making it essential for global trade.

Furthermore, about 20% of the world’s LNG (liquefied natural gas) passed through the Strait of Hormuz during 2024, mostly from Qatar. While Iran does not have the legal authority to close the Strait, they could use force or threaten to use force in order to halt trade.

If Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, there would undoubtedly be a military response by America’s Fifth Fleet and other Western navies that are currently patrolling the area.

Furthermore, if Iran decides to block the Strait, this would likely cause markets to respond quite negatively, and the price of oil would likely skyrocket. Something to consider here is that, given the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, we would hope that Iran blocking the Strait would not be a likely occurrence.

Furthermore, even if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, it would likely not be a long-term blockade, given the Western naval presence already in the area, which would deter such an action.

The Takeaway?

Given the fact that Iran has already fired missiles at the U.S, it is highly doubtful they will block the Strait, not only because of the potential backlash from Western countries but also because of how it would negatively impact their own interests. If Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, Western countries would likely start threatening Iran’s oil exports, which would be extremely problematic for them.

Overall, while Iran blocking the Strait is within their playing cards, it would likely do them significantly more harm than good, therefore making the possibility less likely.

The Big Question: Can the global oil trade survive even a temporary shutdown of the world’s most critical chokepoint?