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Markets Steady on Ceasefire Talks

Markets Steady on Ceasefire Talks

😌 Markets remained steady as ceasefire talks continued between Israel and Iran.

Ankit Sinha
June 25, 2025

Silver banana goes to…

In this issue of the peel:

😌 Markets remained steady as ceasefire talks continued between Israel and Iran.
🛢️Oil dropped as calm in the Middle East eased supply chain concerns in the Strait of Hormuz.
🙅 President Trump is vetoing Congress members’ PTO requests until the big beautiful bill is passed.

Market Snapshot

Banana Bits

Former NYC Mayor Andrew Cuomo might be cooked after he basically conceded the election to Mamdani.
President Trump is vetoing Congress’s PTO requests until a spending bill is passed.
Despite home sales rising, prices are growing more slowly than usual as buyers struggle to keep up in this market.
Nvidia’s stock is quietly hitting an all-time high, and no one is paying attention.
Ceasefire talks continued, and traders are watching oil prices like a hawk.
FedEx beat earnings but provided meager guidance as tariffs took a toll on the company.

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The Daily Poll

Is the Big Beautiful Bill too bloated?

Previous Poll:

Is the Strait of Hormuz too critical to risk?

Absolutely: 45.5% // Depends: 26.1% // Not really: 22.7% // Who Cares: 5.7%

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Macro Monkey Says

Cuomo’s Concession

Yesterday, New Yorkers hit the polls for the ranked-choice mayoral election. So far, it’s turning out to be one of the more surprising NYC primaries, highlighting a huge generational and ideological divide within the city’s electorate.

Voters turned out in record numbers to vote between the two big fish: Former Governor Andrew Cuomo and progressive State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani. Along with a few little fishes: Brad Lander and Adrienne Adams, among others.

With over 93% of the vote counted at the time of writing, Mamdani held the lead with 43% of first-choice votes versus Cuomo at 36%, Lander with 11% and Adams at 4% and a handful of other candidates falling well behind.

Though no candidate reached the 50% threshold required to win outright and the official tally is confirmed on July 1, Cuomo effectively conceded late last night, acknowledging Mamdani’s lead and congratulating him on his performance.

Source

Ranked-choice voting essentially means that instead of picking just one candidate, you rank them in order of preference. For most people, that probably means ranking between Cuomo and Mamdani, and not even bothering with the rest.

This matters a lot because it helps avoid the “spoiler effect,” where similar candidates split the vote and someone wins just because the opposition was divided. Instead, it rewards broad support. Someone who maybe wasn’t everyone’s #1, but was a solid second or third for a lot of people.

Source

Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old self-proclaimed democratic socialist from Queens, ran a grassroots campaign emphasizing rent freezes, free public transit, universal childcare, and a city-owned grocery initiative. Backed by high-profile figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, Mamdani energized the city’s progressive base and younger voters, who turned out in a big way.

According to early voting data, ~45% of ballots were cast by voters under the age of 44, a demographic that heavily favored Mamdani. Interestingly enough, Mamdani captured the city’s wealthiest voters, based on income, by a large margin.

In contrast, Andrew Cuomo was attempting a political comeback after resigning in 2021 amid multiple allegations of misconduct and mishandling of COVID. Backed by major union endorsements and supported by a multi-million dollar super PAC, Cuomo appealed to moderate, older voters.

Despite strong name recognition and institutional backing, Cuomo struggled to connect with younger and progressive voters, many of whom viewed his candidacy as a return to machine-style politics. Although he held his ground in the >45-year-old demographic, it wasn’t enough to close the gap.

The Takeaway?

Mamdani is preparing for the big dance. He’ll have to face off against Republican Curtis Sliwa, independent Jim Walden, and potentially incumbent Eric Adams in the general election. People are watching closely to see how his progressive platform plays citywide.

The results of the primary reflect an identity shift in Democratic politics to one that prioritizes youth turnout, grassroots fundraising, and a bolder policy agenda over legacy name recognition and establishment backing.

Career Corner

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Answer

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What's Ripe

Coinbase (COIN) 12.1%

Coinbase hit its highest level in over 6 months on some positive regulatory updates. With stablecoin legislation passing and a key European regulatory approval, investors are optimistic across the digital asset market board. The exchange has had a five-day 30% run, popped off by Congress’s approval of the GENIUS Act, which creates a framework for stablecoin regulation in the US.

Uber (UBER) 7.5%

Many people thought Waymo was a competitor to Uber, threatening to take their spot. Both companies denied those rumors by announcing a partnership for autonomous vehicles. The vehicles will begin rolling out in the Atlanta area, covering 65 square miles. Riders will be able to request a self-driving car through the Uber app, but operated by Waymo. A win for everybody.

What's Rotten

Kratos Defense (KTOS) 6.6%

Do options traders know something the rest of the market doesn’t? Considering the current precarious state of world affairs, you’d think defense stocks would be booming. Perhaps the market is taking this ceasefire pretty seriously, as the stock lost a bit of its shine.

Gold Stocks

Gold took a bit of a nosedive as investors are no longer flocking to safe assets. It looks like we’re going to avoid an all-out world war, which has equity markets trading like it’s business as usual and Gold going back to the boring store of value it’s meant to be.

Thought Banana

PTO Request Denied

If you were a member of Congress making your barbecue and beach plans for the 4th of July, President Trump just nixed that. No one is going anywhere until the Big Beautiful Bill Act is passed. From Truth Social, Trump tweeted, “NO ONE GOES ON VACATION UNTIL IT’S DONE,” urging Republicans to “lock yourself in a room if you must” and make the deal happen.

So, what’s this bill all about? It is a big piece of legislation and touches everything from military spending and tax cuts to border security and eliminating taxes on tips. The bill also tosses in some cuts to Medicaid and food stamps, rolls back a few green energy credits, and extends Trump’s 2017 tax cuts.

While too exhaustive to list everything in detail, you can check out the full bill here.

Source

The House already passed a version, but things are stickier in the Senate. Fiscal hawks like Rand Paul and Rick Scott are waving red flags about the price tag and threatening to block the bill unless deeper spending cuts are added.

Meanwhile, moderates are trying to make their own edits to the bill, like adjusting the SALT cap and softening some of the healthcare cuts. That’s slowing everything down.

Senate GOP leadership is mostly on board with Trump’s “no vacation” order. Majority Leader John Thune backed the idea of canceling recess, saying the bill is too important to delay. House Speaker Mike Johnson also told members to keep their calendars clear.

For critics of the bill, their primary argument is that further tax cuts will lead to significant increases in the deficit. Public opinion isn’t exactly cheering this on. A recent poll shows most Americans disapprove of the bill, especially once they hear what’s getting cut.

Source

The Takeaway?

Gone are the precious days of Congress showing up, doing the bare minimum, and then getting their precious summer recess. Trump is putting the heat on, telling Republicans they’re not allowed to head out for summer break until his “One Big Beautiful Bill” gets passed.

The bill is packed with tax cuts, military funding, and conservative wishlist items, but it's hitting resistance from both fiscal hawks and moderates. Senate leadership is backing Trump's urgency, but procedural delays and weak public support are clouding the path forward.