Markets Lose Steam

Stocks opened higher, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gave back their gains and finished the day lower, while the Dow held on for another record close.

Author

Josh Banuelos
August 06, 2026

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Sip and Swing: UpSlide Happy Hour

Market Snapshot

📉 Banana Bits

Calling all M&A professionals in New York: UpSlide is hosting a networking-focused happy hour at Five Iron Golf.

On August 13th, firms like Apollo, Rothschild & Co., Forvis Mazars, and more will be in attendance for a relaxed night of drinks and conversation at the driving range.

From this event, you can expect to:

  • Connect and swap insights with peers across the industry

  • Enjoy light bites and an open bar in good company

  • Practice your swing for your next client outing (no experience needed!)

August 13th | 7:00 PM – 9:00 PM | Five Iron Golf, New York

Market News

Peace Dividends & Capex Punishments

The Dow rose 263 points (+0.49%) to 54,349.12 for its third straight record close and that's about where the good news ends. The S&P 500 tagged an all-time high of 7,793.68 inside the first hour, then spent the next five giving every point back, closing down 0.17% at 7,723.55, basically on its lows. The Nasdaq dropped 0.83% to 26,363.44 to snap a four-day heater, and the Russell 2000 slipped 0.59%. One record, three fades… the kind of tape that looks great on TV and worse in your brokerage app.

The major news is still coming out of the Persian Gulf. Qatar has reportedly drafted a proposal between Washington and Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that handles roughly a fifth of the worlds oil, and Trump told reporters a deal “could happen. Tomorrow or the next day.” Iran is even floating letting European crews sweep the mines. Crude kept leaking lower, with WTI hovering near $75 after Tuesday’s 6.5% faceplant, and Asia threw the first party: the KOSPI spiked almost 4% and the Nikkei 2% overnight. 

Here’s the strange part: gold prices rose 4% to a record above $4,300/oz on the same day the Dow set another record. The chain of logic, however, actually holds up: a reopened strait means cheaper oil, cheaper oil means cooler inflation math, and traders trimmed Fed expectations from two more hikes this year to maybe one. Falling rate expectations are gold’s favorite food group. Still, bullion and the Dow setting records together means somebody is hedged to the teeth. A VIX hugging 16 says nobody’s nervous, which is usually when you should be. 

Earnings went ahead and did the heavy lifting on the winners’ side. Lilly rose about 5% on a 48% revenue explosion and a guidance raise, Disney added 2% behind Toy Story 5 and record streaming profitability, and Shopify turned into the day’s marquee blowout (more below!).

But the same tape took a belt sander to the big spenders. SpaceX cratered 13.6% after revealing it spend $18.4B on capex in a single quarter. AMD fell 7% despite a record quarter because its ~$13B guide missed $14B whisper numbers. Alphabet lost 4% on the Dean departure and a growing “where’s the free cash flow” mood. The pattern is unmistakeable: beats don’t matter if the invoice is growing faster than the story. 

Peel Take: Wall Street rewrote the AI grading rubric this week: revenue gets extra credit, capex gets detention. Shopify shows AI receipts and gets paid; SpaceX, AMD, and Alphabet shows AI invoices and get detention slips. Honestly, a market that's finally asking "what's the return on the $18 billion?" is healthier than the one that applauded every zero.

What's Ripe

Shopify (SHOP) 16.98% 

  • Q2 revenue of $3.58B grew 33.6% YoY and beat the Street by roughly $140M, with EPS of $0.42 topping the ~$0.40 consensus and net income hitting $1.5B. GMV climbed 32% to $115.57B… roughly Ecuador’s annual GDP.

  • The AI stat of the season: AI-driven traffic and orders to merchant stores tripled YoY, and new buyers arriving through AI channels are converting nearly 2x faster than those from any other channel. The robots aren't window shopping.

  • Peel Take: While everyone argues about which model wins the AI wars, Shopify built the tollbooth every AI shopping agent has to drive through. Agentic checkout is a take-rate story, and take-rate stories at 30%+ growth print money in any regime. The catch: after an 16.98% single-day rerate, SHOP is priced like the agents never sleep. They don't but your stop-loss shouldn't either.

Nvidia (NVDA) 3.43% 

  • Shares rose $7.28 to $219.22 after Elon Musk named Nvidia the exclusive AI chip supplier for SpaceX’s “Starmind” orbital compute program, calling the Vera Rubin architecture “the best available.”

  • The pop did the Dow's dirty work: CNBC's midday framing was literally "Dow boosted by Nvidia" as the index ground out its third consecutive record on a day the broader chip group (SOXX) fell.

  • Peel Take: The moat was never just the silicon; it’s that “nobody gets fired for buying Nvidia” now applies in low-Earth orbit. Data centers in space are, frankly, capex with extra steps but whether the servers hum in Virginia or fall around the planet at 17,000mph, the purchase order still says Jensen. 

What's Rotten

SpaceX (SPCX) 13.61%

  • The most anticipated earnings debut since the IPO itself: revenue up 92% to $7.8B (est. $6.8B), adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5B, Starlink subs topped 12 million.

  • The problem was the bill: $18.37B of Q2 capex (vs. $2.8B a year ago), including ~$15.8B on AI infrastructure post-xAI merger, a $541M net loss, and roughly $22B of cash burned in H1 – about $200M a day, a burn rate visible from orbit.

  • The real boogeyman arrives today: 911.5M insider shares unlock on 8/6, expanding the tradable float by ~143%.

  • Peel Take: People are wondering whether Starlink can fund Musk’s orbital AI empire before public shareholders get vertigo. A 92% growth story trading at post-IPO lows is either the entry of the year or a falling Starship, and today’s lockup tape will tell you which one the smart money believes. 

Uber (UBER) 5.29%

  • Q2 gross bookings of $58B grew 24% and beat estimates, with mobility up 22% to $28.99B and delivery up 26% to $27.46B.

  • Revenue of $14.19B landed a hair under Street estimates around $14.2B, even as trailing free cash flow crossed $10B for the first time ever.

  • The killer was guidance: Q3 bookings midpoint of $59.25B vs. $59.33B consensus and an EPS range of $0.84–$0.88 against $0.89 expected. So close… yet so far. 

  • Peel Take: This is the priced-for-perfection tax: an $80M guidance gap on $59B of bookings yet 0.1% (a literal rounding error) vaporized ~$10B of market cap. The FCF machine is real and the robotaxi push gives the story a second act, so don’t start questioning the health of Uber just yet. It’s simply a healthy company that wasn’t perfect enough. 

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Banana Brain Teaser

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A company generates $100 million in EBITDA and trades at an 8.0x EV/EBITDA multiple. It has $300 million of debt and $50 million of cash. What is the company’s implied equity value?

Answer: $550 million​

Today

A stock falls 20% from its original price. By what percentage must it rise from its new price to return to its original level?

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