Markets Brace for CPI

Oil stays above $100 and Treasury yields approach 5% ahead of inflation data

Author

Elie Zakhour
September 11, 2026

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Wall Street extended its losing streak Thursday as the combination of $100+ oil, rising Treasury yields, and firmer inflation pressure pushed investors further toward a tighter monetary-policy outlook.

The S&P 500 fell 0.58% to 7,591.75, its fourth straight decline, while the Dow dropped 0.60% to 52,064.10 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.65% to 26,081.73. The S&P is now down about 2% over the past four sessions, its sharpest four-day slide since June.

The bigger problem was happening outside equities. Brent crude jumped 6.3% to settle at $107.63 a barrel, while WTI rose 6.7% to $102.48, as intensifying attacks on shipping and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea deepened concerns over global energy supply. That matters for stocks because higher oil is no longer just an energy-sector story. It can feed into inflation expectations and bond yields, ultimately lifting the discount rates investors use to value equities.

Thursday's inflation data did little to calm those concerns. Producer prices rose 0.4% in August, matching expectations, while annual PPI accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8% in July. Final-demand energy prices climbed 4.2%, and diesel surged 24.1%, accounting for more than a third of the increase in goods prices. Markets raised the implied probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike next week to about 70%, from 62% before the report.

The bond market delivered the other half of Thursday's message. Treasury yields pushed to multi-year highs, with the 10-year approaching the psychologically important 5% level. Higher yields weighed especially on long-duration growth stocks: Nvidia fell 2.3% and Micron dropped 4.7%, while Apple bucked the trend with a 3.6% gain following its new product launch.

Europe added another layer of tightening pressure. The ECB raised rates 25 basis points to 2.5%, its second hike of the year, and lifted parts of its inflation outlook as policymakers respond to the energy shock. That helped reinforce the broader market view that central banks may have to stay restrictive, or tighten further, even as expensive energy begins to threaten growth.

Attention now turns to the August CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists expecting headline inflation of 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI is forecast to rise a more moderate 0.2%.

Peel Take: The market's problem isn't simply that oil crossed $100. It's that expensive energy is colliding with inflation that was already sticky enough to keep the Fed uncomfortable. Thursday's PPI didn't deliver a major headline surprise, but persistent price pressure, surging crude, and near-5% Treasury yields are all reinforcing the case for tighter monetary policy. A soft CPI print this morning could give stocks and bonds some relief, but as long as oil stays this elevated, inflation concerns aren't going away quietly.

What's Ripe

Elevance Health (ELV) 5.41% 

  • Elevance Health jumped 5.4% to $416.54 after management gave investors a stronger read on third-quarter performance. At the Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, the health insurer indicated that trends through July and August had Q3 results tracking ahead of the outlook provided after its second-quarter earnings.

  • The company also reaffirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS outlook of at least $27 per share and maintained its expected 2026 medical cost ratio of roughly 90.2%, plus or minus 50 basis points.

  • Peel Take: Managed-care investors have been watching medical costs closely, so an intra-quarter update pointing to better-than-expected performance carries real weight. Elevance didn't raise its full-year target, but telling investors Q3 is running ahead of plan while reaffirming the annual guide was enough to restore some confidence. The bigger test is whether those favorable cost trends can hold through the rest of the year.

Apple (AAPL) 3.56% 

  • Apple climbed 3.56% to $326.57, standing out in an otherwise weak technology session after unveiling its first foldable iPhone, the $1,999 iPhone Duo, alongside its latest product lineup.

  • The launch represents one of Apple's biggest changes to the iPhone form factor in years, while the company is simultaneously navigating higher memory and component costs that have pushed prices higher across parts of its product lineup.

  • Peel Take: Apple managed to rally nearly 4% on a day when higher yields were punishing much of Big Tech. The foldable iPhone gives the company a genuinely new premium product to put in front of its massive installed base, but at $1,999, the question quickly shifts from whether the technology looks impressive to how many consumers are actually willing to pay for it. For now, Wall Street liked what it saw.

What's Rotten

CooperCompanies (COO) 14.67%

  • CooperCompanies plunged 14.67% to $54.17 after reporting fiscal third-quarter revenue of $1.066 billion, below Wall Street expectations, and cutting its full-year outlook. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.15, while management said a reduction in U.S. channel inventory at CooperVision weighed on results and will continue to affect the fourth quarter.

  • The company now expects FY26 revenue of $4.229 billion to $4.252 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.51 to $4.55. Cooper also completed its strategic review and chose to retain CooperSurgical rather than pursue a sale.

  • Peel Take: Cooper gave investors several reasons to reset expectations at once. The revenue miss and lower guidance were already enough to pressure the stock, while the decision to keep CooperSurgical removed a potential strategic catalyst. The key question now is how quickly CooperVision can work through its U.S. inventory adjustment and return to stronger growth.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) 6.59%

  • Freeport-McMoRan fell 6.59% to $71.21 after news that the White House had not yet decided whether to impose tariffs on refined copper, challenging an expectation that had helped push copper prices to record highs.

  • Copper prices dropped more than 4% as investors reassessed the likelihood of new tariffs, sending shares of major copper producers sharply lower.

  • Peel Take: Freeport’s selloff was less about a sudden deterioration in copper demand and more about investors unwinding part of a policy-driven trade. Expectations for tariffs on refined copper had encouraged U.S. stockpiling and helped support record-high copper prices, so uncertainty over whether those tariffs will actually arrive was enough to hit both the metal and its miners hard.

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