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Liar, Liar, Shelter’s On Fire

💲Much like global sea levels, inflation is rising again, but it’s really nothing to worry about. Find out what’s driving the uptick and why you can ignore it below.

November 14, 2024

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In this issue of the peel:

  • 💲Much like global sea levels, inflation is rising again, but it’s really nothing to worry about. Find out what’s driving the uptick and why you can ignore it below.

  • 👂Spotify posts the midd-est earnings of Q3 to huge applause from investors while your betting losses went straight to the wallets of Flutter shareholders. Spirit Airlines officially tapped out, and Instacart expects a weak Q4.

  • 💰 October was an employee’s dream. Wages were up, hours were down, and earnings kept it real against inflation. Get ready for a hell of a Holiday season.

Market Snapshot

Banana Bits

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Macro Monkey Says

The Bad Apple

Just like how we can’t drink & drive or bring a rocket launcher onto a plane anymore, one bad apple really can spoil the whole bunch.

Alright, in those examples, maybe a few bad apples spoiled the bunch—or the whole damn orchard. But you get what I mean.

However, with regard to inflation in the U.S., it really is just one bad apple killing the vibe for everyone else.

Let’s get into it.

The Numbers

According to yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), prices grew 0.2% last month.

That’s the 4th month in a row of 0.2% inflation, a streak longer than I’ve ever been able to hold a job.

Anyway, it may look flat, but monthly inflation has actually been on a nearly constant increase since June. 

The Fed’s ideal monthly inflation rate is 0.165% (which obviously rounds to 0.2%), as that’s equivalent to an annualized rate of 2%. Last month, inflation grew from 0.179% in September to 0.244% in October.

So that’s the bad news. But the good news is that consensus expectations called for another 0.2% rise last month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.3% (or 0.28%, a slight decline from September’s 0.31%), as expected.

Annual inflation increased last month as well.

Since October 2023, prices have increased by 2.6% per the CPI. That’s the first increase in the annual rate we’ve seen since March.

Meanwhile, annual core CPI increased 3.3%, in line with September and 0.1% above August’s 3.2% rate.

Markets, especially in fixed income, seem to have already anticipated this inflationary uptick as equities barely reacted to the print while treasury yields—especially for short-dated bills—decreased.

The decrease likely reflects the bond market’s view that, despite October’s rise, inflation hasn’t created enough problems to stop the Fed from cutting in December.

And if we look deeper into the report, we can see exactly why—the usual suspects are back at it.

Shelter costs continue to dominate. Last month, shelter costs made up 68% of the annual CPI increase, but because of the baby-brained methodology and ancient technology the BLS uses to ascertain this data, it’s not entirely accurate.

In the first chart above, we can see the CPI’s shelter index in blue, clocking in at 4.9% in October. The red line shows the median sale price of homes in the U.S. (albeit on a quarterly basis), which has been in decline since early 2023.

Next, we can see that according to Redfin’s rental tracker based on real-time listings, the median U.S. rent rose 0.2% annually and declined 0.6% for the month. Moreover, asking rents per square foot declined 1.1% since October 2023.

In other words, we’re once again calling bullsh*t on this CPI due to the artificially inflated (no pun intended) weight of shelter prices.

If mortgage rates, home prices, and rents are all flat or declining, it’s not reasonable for that to translate into 4.9% annual growth. 

But, since the BLS gets part of this data by calling landline phones around the U.S. and asking, “Hey, how much would you rent your house for?” it’s not hard to understand how this can lose all meaning pretty quickly.

The Takeaway?

Yes, inflation technically did increase, but it’s kinda like sea levels. They’re on the rise, but call me when it’s a real problem.

As the above image shows, yesterday’s print—despite increasing—only bolstered the outlook for rate cuts to come in December.

We’ll get a PPI, PCE, updated GDP, November jobs report, and more before the FOMC’s next policy meeting on December 18th. One piece of data could throw the whole narrative off, so stay tuned.

Career Corner

Question

Focusing on my TMAY + 7 stories over the weekend—given I have two different working experiences (3 years of experience), should my stories solely focus on my current job? Is it fair to bring up stories from school at this point?

Answer

I would focus just on work unless it’s really a lights-out / best-ever type of story.

Head Mentor, WSO Academy

What's Ripe

Spotify (SPOT) 11.44%

  • A new feature called “Selective hearing” allowed Spotify shares to jump on Wednesday as analysts ignored financials and listened only to user info.

  • The Swedish audio streamer missed on sales and earnings but delivered 11% growth in MAUs to 640mn, above estimates for 639mn. Premium subs jumped 12% to 252mn.

  • Operating profit guidance for Q4 was the best part, expecting €481mn vs the Street’s estimate for €432.7mn. Strong ARPU growth also boosted shares.

Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) 6.99%

  • Y’all must be losing a lot of bets because FanDuel’s parent company raked it in the last quarter. Is it insider trading to buy shares after losing big? (asking for a friend, ofc.)

  • Anyway, Flutter grew Q3 revenue by 27% on just a 16% jump in AMP (average monthly players). U.S. bettors were especially bad, with revenue up 51% on a 28% increase in AMP.

  • Stakes on the firm’s U.S. sportsbook grew 36%, while bettor losses added 1.2% to top-line growth. FY’24 revenue and earnings guidance both rose 1%.

What's Rotten

Spirit Airlines (SAVE) 59.32%

  • Who would’ve thought the Temu-version of flying, where you're treated worse than the Chinese retailer’s factory workers, wouldn’t last?

  • Hindsight is 20/20, but today’s sight is 0/0 as Spirit Airlines changes its destination from merging with Frontier to landing in bankruptcy.

  • Frontier bowed out of the merger agreement, while an earlier attempt at an M&A oxygen mask was axed by the FTC. Spirit also delayed its latest earnings report, causing investors to lose their…

Instacart (CART) 11.01%

  • We love to complain about grocery prices, but we’ll still pay Instacart to grab our sh*t for us. Few things are more American, but the firm needs some more patriotism in Q4.

  • The grocery delivery firm reported income of $118mn, a huge upswing from last year’s $2bn loss. Revenue grew 11.5% to $852mn, both beating estimates.

  • However, shares are falling due to “weak guidance for Q4.” The firm expects EBITDA to be $230-240mn, a midpoint of $235mn, while Street's pricing is $239mn. 

Thought Banana

Keeping It Real

Seashells, salt, beaver pelts, cheese, whale teeth, cigarettes (obviously), and even human skulls have all, at some point, been used as money.

There’s no intrinsic reason why this green piece of cotton and linen in my wallet is worth $100 (okay, fine, $1) or any amount more than a whale tooth or seashell. So, what is it that makes money real?

Outpacing inflation, obviously. Let’s dive in.

The Numbers

The BLS was busy yesterday, releasing alongside the October CPI a report detailing real wages for the month.

According to the BLS, real average hourly earnings for all employees in the U.S. increased by 0.1% in October. That’s derived from a 0.37% monthly increase in average hourly wages minus the 0.24% increase in CPI.

The average hours worked remained flat, meaning that employees didn’t earn more simply by showing up more, but actual pay increased across the economy.

In October, the average American worked 34.3hrs… which really makes me wish I didn’t major in finance.

Anyway, real average weekly earnings were also up 0.1% monthly. Both real average weekly and hourly earnings increased a fat 4.0% from October 2023.

Kicking management out of the conversation, we can see below that the earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees also increased 0.1% in October.

 

That was due to a 0.4% increase in average hourly wages and a 0.3% decrease in average hours worked.

Annually, real hourly wages jumped 4.1% while real weekly earnings increased 3.8% due to the same 0.3% decrease in hours worked from October of last year.

The Takeaway?

Two words: Hell yeah.

This data, along with October’s CPI and Bank of America’s Consumer Checkpoint (discussed yesterday) paints a pretty picture for consumer spending heading into the Holiday season. 

As consumers make up 66-70% of GDP in any given period, this is a great sign for the economy.

They say money doesn’t buy happiness. And while I’m severely lacking in both, I can’t imagine that making a lot of money is a top reason to see a therapist.

The Big Question: Will real wages continue to increase through the Holiday season to support consumer spending? Are your wages keeping up?

Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

The points R, T, and U lie on a circle that has a radius of 4. If the length of arc RTU is (4π/3), what is the length of line segment RU?

Answer: 4

Today

If x is to be chosen at random from the set {1,2,3,4} and y is to be chosen at random from the set {5,6,7}, what is the probability that xy will be even?

Send your guesses to [email protected]

❝

Investment success doesn’t come from ‘buying good things,’ but rather from ‘buying things well.’

Howard Marks

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Happy Investing,
David, Vyom, Ankit & Patrick