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Market Snapshot

📉 Banana Bits

• India’s largest bank stumbled after a $5B rupee short tied to a trading ban.

• Rising oil prices are finally pushing Thailand’s inflation higher.

• Trump floated seizing Iranian oil to pressure China.

• The oil rally drove Philippine inflation to a 20-month high.

• Trump doubled down on reopening Hormuz amid rising tensions.

• BlackRock is eyeing a bigger share of Invesco’s Nasdaq-100 space.

• Goldman’s private credit fund narrowly avoided heavy investor withdrawals.

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Market News

Why Are Markets Still Rising?

Oil surged while stocks swung in a volatile session after President Donald Trump warned that military strikes against Iran could escalate as soon as Tuesday if negotiations fail.

Concerns that conflict could disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supply, pushed U.S. crude above $112 a barrel.

Despite geopolitical tensions, the S&P 500 extended gains, marking its longest rally since January, while bonds and the dollar remained largely unchanged.

Trump said talks with Iran were “going well” ahead of a Tuesday deadline but warned that failure to reach a deal could lead to sweeping military strikes on Iranian infrastructure.

Iran reportedly rejected a ceasefire proposal, demanding an end to hostilities, sanctions relief, and guarantees of reconstruction.

Investors, meanwhile, kept an eye on mixed U.S. economic signals, including slower services-sector growth and rising input prices, while strategists at firms including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs noted that systematic investors may soon return to buying equities after sharply cutting exposure during the recent selloff.

Peel Take: Markets are being pulled between geopolitical risk and resilient macro data. The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most sensitive oil chokepoint, meaning even the threat of disruption can quickly ripple through inflation expectations and global growth forecasts. For investors, the tension highlights how energy shocks can rapidly become macro shocks, especially if conflict threatens supply routes.

What's Ripe

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) 10.1%

• KTOS jumped 10% to $74.09 after Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold and set a $85 price target.

• The bullish call helped fuel the rally, as investors responded to stronger growth expectations across Kratos’ defense and autonomous systems businesses.

• Peel Take: Kratos has become a key beneficiary of rising defense spending and demand for autonomous military systems, particularly drones and low-cost tactical platforms. Analyst upgrades often act as catalysts in the sector because many defense contractors trade on long-term program visibility and backlog growth, meaning shifts in sentiment about future contracts can quickly re-rate the stock.

Strategy Inc. (MSTR) 6.6%

• MSTR climbed 6.6%, while Coinbase rose 1.9% and Robinhood Markets gained 1.3% as improving hopes for a geopolitical truce helped lift cr*ptocurrency prices.

• Strategy also disclosed that it purchased 4,871 additional B*tcoin between April 1 and Sunday, reinforcing its aggressive accumulation strategy.

• Peel Take: Cr*pto-linked equities often move as leveraged proxies for B*tcoin, meaning improvements in macro sentiment or geopolitical risk can quickly spill into the sector. Strategy’s continued B*tcoin purchases also signal that institutional conviction around the asset remains strong, reinforcing its role as a corporate treasury bet on cr*pto’s long-term value.

What's Rotten

Invesco Ltd (IVZ) 5.2%

• The decline appears linked to a recent wave of more cautious analyst outlooks that trimmed expectations for 2025–2026 results as softer markets and fading risk appetite threaten growth.

• Weaker equity performance can weigh on both assets under management and fee income, directly impacting profitability. Because Invesco is particularly sensitive to equity and ETF flows, investors may be reacting to concerns that declining markets could quickly translate into lower AUM and reduced earnings power.

• Peel Take: Asset managers like Invesco operate with high operating leverage in markets. When equities rise, AUM and fee revenue climb quickly, but the reverse is also true when risk appetite fades. That dynamic makes the sector particularly sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment and market levels, meaning even modest equity pullbacks can ripple quickly into earnings expectations.

Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) 5.0%

• SMCI is under heavy scrutiny after U.S. authorities unsealed an indictment against several associated individuals for allegedly diverting Nvidia-powered AI servers to China in violation of export controls, triggering multiple securities class actions.

• Peel Take: The case highlights how AI hardware supply chains have become a geopolitical battleground. With advanced chips and AI servers subject to tightening U.S. export controls, companies tied to the ecosystem face rising compliance risks. For investors, the episode underscores how regulatory exposure, not just demand, can quickly become a key driver of volatility across the AI infrastructure sector.

🧠 Technical Trip

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🦈 Deal Dispatch

M&A, IPOs, And Other Notable Transactions

• Pershing Square is exploring a merger play involving Universal Music.

• Anthropic crossed a $30B revenue run rate, boosted by a Broadcom deal.

• AI firms are teaming up to curb model copying in China.

• Japan’s dealmaking momentum continues to build.

• Banks are lining up financing for a €1.5B sushi sector deal.

Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

The total cost for Company X to produce a batch of tools is $10,000 plus $3 per tool. Each tool sells for $8. The gross profit earned from producing and selling these tools is the total income from sales minus the total production cost. If a batch of 20,000 tools is produced and sold, then Company X’s gross profit per tool is

Answer: $4.50

Today

The probability that event M will NOT occur is 0.8, and the probability that event R will NOT occur is 0.6. If events M and R cannot both occur, what is the probability that either event M or event R will occur?

How Would You Rate Today's Peel?

Happy Investing,
Chris, Vyom, Ankit, Mitchell, Fernanda, & Patrick

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