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Market Snapshot

📉 Banana Bits

• Private capital is rotating out of SaaS and into hard assets like steel and storage.

• Goldman raised oil forecasts after what it calls a record supply shock.

• Gold dropped 3% as the Iran war reignited inflation fears.

• Bond yields are climbing globally as rate expectations get reshaped.

• A top emerging-market trade is starting to crack under war pressure.

• Iran escalated tensions with threats to critical infrastructure after Trump’s ultimatum.

Market News

Nowhere to Hide

Stocks, bonds, and investor optimism all took another hit as the Iran conflict deepened and fears of a broader war rattled global markets.

The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, extending its losing streak to four weeks, the longest in a year, as reports surfaced that the Pentagon may deploy ground forces into Iran.

Meanwhile, speculation swirled that the U.S. could seize Kharg Island, a key oil-export terminal, to pressure Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the route carrying roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows.

Oil prices surged in response, with Brent Crude climbing above $112. The ripple effects were everywhere.

Treasury yields rose as traders began pricing in a 50% chance that the Federal Reserve could hike rates by October, reversing earlier expectations of cuts. The U.S. Dollar strengthened, while Gold had its worst week in four decades, leaving traditional “safe havens” looking less safe than advertised.

Since the war began, the S&P 500 has dropped about 5.5%, and investors appear increasingly unsure how long the conflict, and its economic fallout, will last.

Adding to the uncertainty, Fed officials signaled mixed views. Governor Christopher Waller said rising oil prices could complicate inflation, while Vice Chair Michelle Bowman still expects rate cuts in 2026 but is closely watching geopolitical developments.

For now, many investors are retreating to money market funds, parking cash on the sidelines while markets attempt to price in the duration and severity of the Middle East conflict.

Peel Take: Markets are learning an old macro lesson: war doesn’t just move oil, it rewrites interest-rate expectations. Higher energy prices mean higher inflation risk, which pushes bond yields up and stocks down, leaving investors with fewer places to hide.

When even gold is falling, the market’s message is simple: sometimes the safest trade is just sitting in cash and waiting for the dust to settle.

What's Ripe

Planet Labs PBC (PL) 25.5%

• PL rallied nearly 25% after the Earth-imaging company reported fourth-quarter revenue and earnings above analysts’ expectations.

• CEO Will Marshall also struck an optimistic tone for fiscal 2026, calling it a “transformational year” as the company plans to launch 40 new satellites and partner with Google to explore space-based data centers.

• Peel Take: Planet is pitching the ultimate cloud strategy, literally putting the cloud in space. If the satellite rollout and Google partnership deliver, Planet could strengthen its moat in geospatial data. But until those satellites actually launch and generate revenue, the rally is also a reminder that space optimism still trades at a premium on Earth.

SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG) 13.3%

• SEDG surged 13% to $51.69 after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Hold from Underperform and raised its price target to $49 from $30. The upgrade signals that analysts see less downside risk and improving fundamentals for the energy-technology firm.

• Peel Take: Sometimes the biggest catalyst on Wall Street isn’t new earnings—it’s analysts admitting they were too bearish. The upgrade suggests sentiment is shifting from “this could get worse” to “okay, maybe the bottom is in.” The rally shows investors were waiting for any sign that the pessimism had gone too far.

What's Rotten

Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) 33.3%

• SMCI cratered 33% after U.S. prosecutors charged the company’s co-founder and two others in an alleged scheme to divert U.S.-assembled AI servers to China in violation of export-control laws.

• According to the indictment, the group attempted to sell billions of dollars of servers containing restricted Nvidia AI chips to Chinese buyers. While the company itself was not named as a defendant, the association with the alleged export-control breach spooked investors.

• Peel Take: When AI demand meets geopolitics, things get messy. Nvidia chips have become the most tightly controlled commodity in tech, and any hint of export-control violations is a red flag for regulators and investors alike. Even though the company isn’t formally charged, the market is pricing in reputational risk, potential compliance scrutiny, and supply-chain disruption. In the AI boom, the biggest bottleneck isn’t demand, it’s who’s allowed to buy the chips.

XPeng Inc. ADR (XPEV) 8.4%

• XPEV tumbled 8.4% despite reporting its first-ever quarterly net profit and better-than-expected fourth-quarter sales. Investors focused instead on a weak outlook for 2026, with the company guiding first-quarter deliveries of 61,000–66,000 vehicles, implying a 29.8%–35.1% sequential decline.

• Peel Take: Even when EV companies finally hit profitability, the market still cares more about growth momentum. XPeng’s milestone profit should be a big deal, but the sharp delivery slowdown signals that China’s EV price war and demand volatility aren’t over. In today’s EV market, guidance beats earnings, and a soft outlook can easily overshadow a historic profit.

🧠 Technical Trip

Interview Q&A from JPMorgan

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📚 Lesson from the Library

🎥 DCF Modeling Course: Valuing Cash Flow, Not Hype

Build clean, defensible DCF models from forecasts to valuation.

🎓 Check out the DCF Modeling Course

🌟 WSO Academy Q4 Update

🎤 WSO Academy Speaker Series

We’ve continued expanding the WSO Academy Speaker Series, giving students the opportunity to hear directly from senior professionals across Investment Banking, Hedge Funds, and Asset & Wealth Management.

All past sessions are available to watch directly on the student’s dashboard.

• Scott L. Bok - Chairman & CEO, Greenhill & Co. (May 2025)

• Michael Harris - Vice Chairman & Global Head of Capital Markets, NYSE (August 2025)

• Zach Levenick - Founder, THG Securities Advisors (September 2025)

• John Morgan - CIO, Morgan Capital Family Office (October 2025)

• James Marciano - Founder & CEO, Tuck Advisors (December 2025)

• Sandeep Varma - Founder & CEO, Equity Data Science (January 2026)

• Jen Berry - Former COO, Bridgewater Associates (February 2026)

• Jeff Gitterman - CEO, Gitterman Wealth Management (March 2026)

We’ll continue bringing in industry leaders throughout the year to share insights on careers, markets, and navigating the finance industry.

Apply to WSO Academy

🦈 Deal Dispatch

M&A, IPOs, And Other Notable Transactions

• AI startup Upstage is planning to purchase 10,000 AMD chips in Korea.

• Elliott built a multibillion-dollar stake in chip design firm Synopsys.

• Qatar is eyeing a 10% stake in sneaker brand Golden Goose.

📊The Daily Poll

Previous Poll:

What matters more for oil prices right now?

War headlines: 56.8% // Supply-demand data: 20.5% // Policy signals: 9.1% // Market positioning: 13.6%

Student Success Corner

👉 Are you next? Find out with WSO Academy

Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

The current student-to-teacher ratio at a certain school is 30 to 1. If student enrollment increased by 50 students and the number of teachers increased by 5, the student-to-teacher ratio would be 25 to 1. What is the present number of teachers?

Answer: 15

Today

For the positive numbers, n, n + 1, n + 2, n + 4, and n + 8, the mean is how much greater than the median?

How Would You Rate Today's Peel?

Happy Investing,
Chris, Vyom, Ankit, Mitchell, Fernanda, & Patrick

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