Fed Sees One Cut

The Fed only sees one rate cut for this year, a more conservative outlook than expected.

Author

Ankit Sinha
September 18, 2025

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🎯 In this issue:

  • Banana Bits: Finance headlines that actually matter

  • Market Summary: Razor-thin losses

  • What’s Ripe / Rotten: The tastiest and most disgusting stocks 

  • Technical Trip: Interview Q&A from Jane Street

  • Deal Dispatch: M&A, IPOs, and other transactions 

  • The Daily Poll: See how you stack up

Market Snapshot

📉 Banana Bits

Market Recap

A signal of a Dovish Fed

The Fed had decided to go through a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday amid weakening in the labor market. The decision puts the overnight funds rate in a range between 4.00%-4.25%. The vote came in at 11 to 1, signalling a shift in hawkish tone among the Fed officials. 

Based on the central bank’s dot plot, which anonymously shows the expectations of 19 individual members, the median estimate is 3.6% for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026. 

This translates to two more rate cuts this year, one in October and December. However, for 2026, it only signals a single rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.4% 

This signals that the Fed is cautious for 2026 amid several factors. 

One of them is the effect of tariffs. Powell indicated that tariffs could push for a one-time shift in price level, which represents a persistent inflationary environment ahead. The change for the Fed chairman in 2026 could lead to some uncertainty ahead, leading the Fed to a more hawkish tone. 

What's Ripe

Lyft Inc. (LYFT) 13.1%

  • LYFT rose 13.1% after it announced the partnership between Alphabet’s Waymo would be expanded to Nashville in 2026.

  • Meanwhile, Lyft’s biggest peer Uber slumped 5%.

Workday Inc. (WDAY) 7.3%

  • WDAY jumped 7.3% in Wednesday trading after activist investor Elliott Investment Management disclosed a $2 billion investment.

  • This investment came after Elliott praised the company for having a competent CEO and significant growth potential.

What's Rotten

StubHub Holdings Inc. (STUB) 6.4%

  • STUB had its market debut on Wednesday. The stock initially popped to $25.35, up from its IPO price of $23.50.

  • Shares were down 6.4% after the market closed at $22. 

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) 2.6%

  • NVDA fell 2.6% after it was announced that China’s biggest tech companies are banned from using its artificial intelligence chips.

  • The Cyberspace Administration of China told ByteDance and Alibaba to stop testing and orders from Nvidia.

🧠 Technical Trip

Q&A with Jane Street

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🦈 Deal Dispatch

M&A, IPOs, And Other Notable Transactions

📊The Daily Poll

Two more cuts this year =

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Previous Poll:

IPO wave signals…

Risk appetite back: 40.9% // Just hype: 20.4% // Smart timing: 27.3% // Bubble 2.0: 11.4%

Student Success Corner

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Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

There are 8 teams in a certain league, and each team plays each of the other teams exactly once. If each game is played by 2 teams, what is the total number of games played?

Answer: 28

Today

David had d books, which is 3 times as many as Jeff and ½ as many as Paula. How many books do the three of them have altogether, in terms of d?

❝

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Joel Greenblatt

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Happy Investing,
Chris, Vyom, Ankit, Mitchell, Colin & Patrick