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Market Snapshot

📉 Banana Bits

• Trump plans to release 172M barrels from the strategic reserve to ease energy prices.

• After the Supreme Court blocked tariffs, the administration is looking for another path.

• February CPI came in exactly as expected, rising 2.4% month-over-month.

• The U.S. deficit crossed $1T, though it’s still down 12% year-over-year.

• The U.S. launched new trade probes into China, Mexico, the EU, and a dozen other countries.

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Market News

Markets Like CPI… Then Oil Happened

U.S. markets finished Wednesday mostly flat as investors tried to decide whether the latest inflation data was good news… or just not bad news.

February CPI came in pretty much exactly where economists expected, rising 0.3% for the month and 2.4% year-over-year, which normally would’ve been enough to calm markets.

But just as traders were getting comfortable, oil prices started ripping higher again, with WTI Crude up 6% as of the time of writing due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Late last night, Trump announced the U.S. would release 172 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to lower energy prices.

Meanwhile, corporate news helped drive some of the day’s biggest moves:

• Oracle shares jumped 9% after strong earnings and upbeat guidance tied to demand for AI infrastructure, reminding investors that the AI spending boom is still very real.

• Energy, Tech, and Communication Services were the only sectors that stood a fighting chance today, ending in the positive, while every other sector finished firmly in the red.

Peel Take: CPI behaved, which should’ve been good news for markets. Then oil spiked, reminding investors that geopolitics still likes to crash the party.

What's Ripe

Oracle (ORCL) 9.2%

• Shares jumped after the company reported strong earnings and issued upbeat guidance.

• Management pointed to surging demand for AI infrastructure and cloud services, reinforcing the idea that the AI spending boom is still very much alive.

• Peel Take: Strong AI infrastructure demand reminded investors that the AI spending boom still has plenty of momentum.

Valero Energy (VLO) 6.5%

• Energy was one of the rare sectors that traded up on the day, and Valero got caught up in the whirlwind.

• For refiners like Valero, investors expect wider “crack spreads” (the difference between crude oil costs and gasoline/diesel prices), which boosts profitability when fuel prices rise faster than crude.

• Peel Take: Rising fuel prices mean wider refining margins, giving Valero a boost as energy stocks caught a tailwind.

What's Rotten

Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) 9.3%

• Credit bureaus started a price war. Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion cut prices on their competing VantageScore 4.0 mortgage scores, increasing competition and putting pressure on FICO’s historically dominant credit-scoring business.

• The credit bureaus are trying to undercut FICO’s long-standing position in mortgage lending, raising concerns that lenders might switch to cheaper alternatives over time.

• Peel Take: A pricing war from rival credit bureaus is threatening FICO’s long-held dominance in mortgage credit scoring.

Campbell’s (CPB) 7.1%

• Campbell’s stock is headed toward a 20-year low on weak snack and soup sales.

• Campbell’s reported declining demand across key categories, including a 6.2% drop in snack sales and a 3.7% decline in meals and beverages, which dragged overall revenue below expectations.

• Peel Take: Weak demand for snacks and soup is leaving Campbell’s stock stuck near multi-decade lows.

🧠 Technical Trip

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🦈 Deal Dispatch

M&A, IPOs, And Other Notable Transactions

• Netflix is reportedly paying $600M for Ben Affleck’s AI startup.

• Houston Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta is eyeing a $7B purchase of Caesars Palace.

• SoftBank-backed PayPay is planning an $800M IPO.

• Papa John’s received a $1.7B take-private bid from Qatari investors.

• A $7B debt package tied to a Sealed Air buyout could launch next week.

Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

A pharmaceutical company received $3 million in royalties on the first $20 million in sales of the generic equivalent of one of its products and then $9 million in royalties on the next $108 million in sales. By approximately what percent did the ratio of royalties to sales decrease from the first $20 million in sales to the next $108 million in sales?

Answer: 45%

Today

At a certain fruit stand, the price of each apple is 40 cents, and the price of each orange is 60 cents. Mary selects a total of 10 apples and oranges from the fruit stand, and the average (arithmetic mean) price of the 10 pieces of fruit is 56 cents. How many oranges must Mary put back so that the average price of the pieces of fruit that she keeps is 52 cents?

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Happy Investing,
Chris, Vyom, Ankit, Mitchell, Fernanda, & Patrick

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