CPI in Focus Again

🛒 CPI numbers for April are coming out, and traders are hoping inflation continues its losing streak.

June 11, 2025

Silver banana goes to





In this issue of the peel:

  • 🌏 Markets continue to tentatively climb as neither the U.S. nor China has said anything to blow up a potential trade deal.

  • ☕ Starbucks employees are about to start training their own replacement AI baristas.

  • 🛒 CPI numbers for April are coming out, and traders are hoping inflation continues its losing streak.

Market Snapshot

Banana Bits

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And they're not just dreaming big; they're delivering:

  • Initial prototype order delivered to SpaceX in 2020.

  • Subsequent project order of 156 homes from the Department of Defense completed in 2021.

  • Now, after implementing what was learned from those prior orders, actively delivering to developers and consumers.

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Macro Monkey Says

CPI Drops Today

It’s that time of the month again! No, not rent day, but CPI Day, when the U.S. government drops the latest Consumer Price Index numbers and the entire financial world collectively freaks out or breathes a sigh of relief. 

The May report hits this morning, and Wall Street, the Fed, and your friend who suddenly became a macro expert online are all tuning in.

So, what’s CPI again? In simple terms, CPI tracks how much stuff costs and how quickly prices are increasing from the previous month. This includes everything from eggs and gas to rent and used cars. It's the go-to measure of inflation, and the Fed watches it like a hawk (a very nervous, rate-hiking hawk). If CPI is running hot, the Fed might hold off on cutting rates. If it's cool, markets throw a party and everything rallies like it's 2021 again.

Last month (April), headline CPI came in at 2.3 % year-over-year, which was a tiny relief after a streak of stubborn prints earlier in the year. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, showed some softening as well. Each month, we’re getting closer and closer to the Fed’s happy place of 2%, and doves are licking their chops in anticipation of a rate hike.

For May, economists are expecting more good news. Consensus is calling for a 0.1% month-over-month increase in headline CPI, which would be a slowdown, thanks in part to falling gas prices. Core CPI is expected to come in at 0.3%, a tick softer than earlier in the year. 

The big story? Shelter inflation (rent prices), aka rent, which is still keeping CPI elevated, even though real-time rental data suggests cooling. That lag has been messing with the numbers for months. Also, keep an eye on used cars and airfare; they’re small pieces of the index but have big mood swings.

The CPI release hits at 8:30 a.m. ET, and markets will be twitchy. Stocks have been riding a wave of optimism lately, but a surprise uptick in CPI could kill the vibe. On the flip side, a soft print could turbocharge the “Fed cut in September” narrative.

The Takeaway?

CPI Day is like a monthly report card on inflation, and this one might finally show some gold stars. Just don’t expect a full victory lap,  the Fed’s still waiting for inflation to chill across the board. In the meantime, try not to refresh your portfolio every five minutes.

Career Corner

Question

If I agree to an interview with a person through LinkedIn without using email, should I send a thank-you note on LinkedIn or via email?

Answer

Stick to LinkedIn if they have been responsive on that.

Head Mentor, WSO Academy

What's Ripe

Intel (INTC) 7.9% 

  • Intel’s stock got a nice boost from
 absolutely nothing, actually. There were no company-specific positive wins or updated news, just the continued long-term weariness that investors have about a company struggling to keep up. Intel is riding the wave of broad tech sector hype and ETF buying. 

Tesla (TSLA) 5.7% 

  • Tracking Tesla is basically getting a front row seat to what investors think about the man behind it. Just when his back is on the ropes, Elon always seems to pull through. Tesla’s stock jumped because of rumors of a robotaxi launch in Austin on June 12, along with a simmering of tensions between Musk and President Trump.

What's Rotten

JM Smucker (SJM) 15.6%

  • Ahhh, the classic disappointing guidance at your investor day leading to a complete blowup in the stock. We’ve seen it time and time again. Your favorite company, behind brands like Folgers, Hostess, and Jif peanut butter, had its investor day, reporting mixed results and missing its revenue estimate. 

  • A TD Cowen Analyst opined that the stock will likely be in the “penalty box” for a while. Yikes. 

Rubrik (RBRK) 6.0%

  • Rubrik’s stock took a hit after announcing a convertible bond offering. Convertible bonds are similar to debt, where a company borrows money and repays it to investors at a fixed rate. However, convertibles have an equity component, allowing investors to convert their investment into equity when specific conditions are met. 

  • Stocks typically get hit because of 1) dilution to current shareholders and 2) hedge fund converts arb managers shorting the stock as a hedge to the convertible. 

Thought Banana

Say Hello to Starbucks' New AI Barista 

If you thought your local Starbucks couldn’t get any more efficient (or crowded), think again. Starbucks is officially rolling out “Green Dot Assist,” a generative AI tool built with Microsoft’s Azure OpenAI to help baristas make your drink, manage inventory, and maybe even help spell your name correctly on the cup. 

And who’s going to help train these new AI baristas, you ask? Human baristas, of course! Double the workload for the same amount of pay. In the nicest words possible, Starbucks basically just told their current employees to start training their replacements down the road.

But for now, it’s being marketed as an “assistant” rather than a replacement. The idea behind the new AI rollout is simple: baristas juggle drink orders, inventory management, cleaning duties, etc. Green Dot Assist is like a little sidekick, if you will, offering real-time suggestions, guiding new partners through tasks, and helping with training. Think of it as a calm coworker who never calls in sick or needs a caffeine fix.

Green Dot Assist is already being piloted in 150 stores and is expected to roll out to over 14,000 stores in the U.S. and Canada by 2026.

But this isn’t just about drinks. The tool is also helping store managers by summarizing insights, streamlining store operations, and making training smoother. Oh, more flipping through outdated binders in the back room. With AI helping baristas behind the scenes and barista trainers in their pocket, Starbucks is betting that better tech = better vibes.

Of course, this move also signals how deeply AI is being woven into everyday life. The fact that ChatGPT was down for a few hours yesterday and everyone lost their minds might be a signal that we’re starting to become a little too dependent. 

While some customers may side-eye the rise of AI in their latte-making process, most people just want their drink made right and fast. And hey, if AI can help with that, people will likely get on board.

The Takeaway?

For the time being, Starbucks isn’t replacing your favorite barista who smiles and pretends to like you for the sake of getting a bigger tip. They’re just getting a digital buddy to handle the boring stuff so they can focus on slinging drinks and maybe remembering your name. And if Green Dot Assist ever learns how to deal with mobile order pileups, then it might deserve a tip jar after all.

The Big Question: Is Starbucks' AI barista just a helpful tool—or the first step toward brewing layoffs?

Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

For the positive numbers, n, n + 1, n + 2, n + 4, and n + 8, the mean is how much greater than the median?

Answer: 1

Today

A certain characteristic in a large population has a distribution that is symmetric about the mean m. If 68% of the distribution lies within one standard deviation d of the mean, what percentage of the distribution is less than m + d?

Send your guesses to [email protected]

❝

You don’t make money by simply buying good businesses, you make money based on the price at which you buy good businesses .

Paul Enright

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Happy Investing,
Chris, Vyom, Ankit & Patrick