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Chip Crunch Extended
Memory chip shortages may drag on until 2030, per SK leadership.
Ankit Sinha
March 17, 2026
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Market Snapshot
š Banana Bits
The RBA hiked rates again, though the decision wasnāt unanimous.
Trump delayed Xiās visit in yet another last-minute shift.
Memory chip shortages may drag on until 2030, per SK leadership.
Malaysia is emerging as an investor favorite amid Asiaās war-driven volatility.
Nvidia trimmed its trillion-dollar sales outlook. AI hype meets reality.
Market News
Calmā¦ Until the Next Headline
Markets caught a breather as oil prices dipped, lifting both stocks and bonds, even as the Strait of Hormuz remained more āclosed for businessā than open.
A few tankers squeezing through was enough to calm nerves, with WTI crude settling around $93.50 and the S&P 500 climbing 1%, led by tech (of course, with Nvidia casually reminding everyone itās on track to print $1 trillion in AI revenue).
Lower oil also cooled inflation fears, giving Treasuries a boost, while the dollar slipped and B*tcoin flexed past $73,000, because why not.
Geopolitics, however, remains the ultimate wildcard. Trump is still calling for help securing Hormuz and keeping military options āon the table,ā while the International Energy Agency hinted it has more emergency reserves ready if things escalate.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials suggest oil prices could fall below $80 in a few months, assuming the war doesnāt overstay its welcome. Wall Street, as usual, is cautiously optimistic. Some see this as a dip-buying opportunity, while others warn the rally could be short-lived without a clear resolution in the Middle East. Translation: markets are relievedā¦ but not relaxed.
All eyes now turn to the Fed, which is expected to hold rates steady while trying to balance a tricky mix of cooling inflation and a weakening job market, basically walking a tightrope in a geopolitical windstorm.
Peel Take: Markets are trading like that one friend who says āIām calmā during chaos, technically true, but one headline away from spiraling.
What's Ripe
National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA) 30.0%
NSA shares surged 30% to $40.23 after the company agreed to be acquired by Public Storage in an all-stock deal valued at $10.5B.
Under the terms, National Storage Affiliates shareholders will receive 0.14 shares of Public Storage, implying a deal value of $41.68 per share, a nice little upgrade from where it was trading (and a reminder that M&A rumors are sometimes worth believing).
Peel Take: Turns out the best way to boost storage demandā¦ is to store yourself inside a bigger company.
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) 15.0%
Shares surged 15% after the Nvidia-backed cloud company struck a deal with Meta that could be worth up to $27B.
The agreement includes $12B of dedicated capacity for Meta starting next year, basically locking in a massive customer before the AI cloud race gets even more crowded.
Peel Take: In the AI arms race, securing Meta as a client isnāt just a win; itās basically pre-booking your revenue for the next few years.
What's Rotten
Mosaic Co. (MOS) 5.6%
MOS dropping 5.6% to ~$28 on unusually light trading, because apparently even buyers decided to sit this one out.
The culprit? A miss on both earnings and revenue. Mosaic posted $0.22 EPS vs. $0.48 expected and $2.97B revenue vs. $3.02B forecast, prompting analysts to trim price targets.
The vibe check from Wall Street: āHoldā, aka āweāre not mad, just disappointed.āOn the bright side, the company announced a $0.22 dividend (~3.2% yield), which is niceā¦ but not quite enough to distract from the earnings faceplant.
Peel Take: Mosaic tried to soften the blow with a dividend, but investors were clearly hoping for fertilizer, notā¦ underperformance.
š§ Technical Trip
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š¦ Deal Dispatch
M&A, IPOs, And Other Notable Transactions
Warner Bros.ā CEO secured a $667M windfall from the Paramount deal.
Warburg is eyeing a $2.5B-plus payout from the Exeter sale.
Apple acquired MotionVFX to strengthen its creator ecosystem.
OpenAI is in talks for a $10B joint venture as private equity circles AI.
šThe Daily Poll
If chip shortages last till 2030, who benefits most? |
Previous Poll:
Does rising bond volatility worry you about markets?
Yes, a lot: 31.6% // Somewhat: 57.9% // Not really: 2.6% // Markets adapt: 7.9%
Banana Brain Teaser
Previous
A certain characteristic in a large population has a distribution that is symmetric about the mean m. If 68 percent of the distribution lies within one standard deviation d of the mean, what percent of the distribution is less than m + d?
Answer: 84%
Today
For the positive integers a, b, and k, (a)^k || b means that (a)^k is a divisor of b, but (a)^k+1 is not a divisor of b. If k is a positive integer and (2)^k || 72, then k is equal to?
Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower.
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Happy Investing,
Chris, Vyom, Ankit, Mitchell, Fernanda, & Patrick