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Market Snapshot

📉 Banana Bits

• Japan tapped its oil reserves as war disrupted global supply lines.

• Rising oil prices pushed China’s 30-year bond yields higher.

• The U.S. released strategic oil reserves but plans to refill them later.

• Trump’s war stance is keeping central bankers on edge worldwide.

• The U.S. scrapped plans for a global permit rule on AI chip exports.

The Next Era of Electric Flight

Electric aviation has been “the future” for years. Now companies are looking to turn it into an actual business.

Surf Air Mobility (NYSE: SRFM) just announced a partnership with BETA Technologies — combining Surf Air Mobility’s existing operations with BETA’s ALIA electric aircraft, which has already logged more than 100,000 nautical miles of flight testing.

The plan is straightforward: take BETA’s aircraft and plug it directly into Surf Air Mobility’s operating infrastructure and customer demand.

Surf Air Mobility is aiming to become the first operator flying paying passengers on next-generation electric aircraft, once certified, with initial rollout planned in Hawaii, where the company is already the largest commuter passenger airline.

Beyond passenger flights, BETA’s aircraft is also designed for cargo missions, where the company plans to initially launch operations.

Peel Take: Electric aviation has spent years in the prototype stages. Partnerships like this are how electric aviation could start becoming a reality.

See what Surf Air Mobility is building >

Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement by Surf Air Mobility, Inc.

Market News

War Headlines Move Billions

Volatility returned to Wall Street as the escalating war in Iran rattled global markets. Stocks reversed earlier gains, WTI Crude surged past $100 per barrel for the first time in over three years, and the dollar strengthened to its highest level in months.

The S&P 500 erased a nearly 1% rally, while megacap stocks extended their pullback to more than 10% from recent highs. Treasury bonds initially rallied on weak economic data but lost momentum as rising energy prices reignited inflation concerns, pushing longer-term yields higher.

Oil markets remain the central driver. The conflict has triggered what some analysts call one of the largest potential supply disruptions in years, with fears the war could drag on. The Pentagon has increased military deployments to the Middle East, while both the U.S. and Iran signal little appetite for immediate de-escalation.

The spike in oil prices is now spilling into broader financial conditions. A Bank of America index measuring cross-asset volatility has jumped to its highest level since the April tariff shock, reflecting rising uncertainty across equities, rates, currencies, and commodities.

Meanwhile, economic data painted a mixed picture. Consumer spending and GDP growth weakened, suggesting the economy was already losing momentum before the conflict intensified.

However, job openings increased, and layoffs declined, showing the labor market remains relatively resilient. Inflation data came in roughly in line with expectations, but consumer sentiment slipped to a three-month low.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady next week, though policymakers may revise economic projections as the war and higher energy prices complicate the inflation outlook.

Peel Take: Markets were already nervous about the economy, then oil exploded higher. Now investors are bracing for the possibility that war-driven energy prices could keep inflation stubbornly high.

What's Ripe

SentinelOne Inc. (S) 5.4%

• SeninelOne, a cybersecurity company, reversed earlier losses to close up 5.4%, even after reporting mixed results.

• Revenue jumped 20% in the fourth quarter, but the firm posted a larger loss and issued disappointing first-quarter guidance, leaving investors with a somewhat confusing earnings picture.

• Peel Take: Markets clearly decided to focus on the growth story rather than the losses. In the cybersecurity sector, strong revenue expansion often buys companies a lot of patience from investors. But if guidance continues to disappoint, Wall Street may eventually remember that revenue growth is great, profits are still better.

Micron Technology Inc. (MU) 5.1%

• MU jumped 5.1% after analysts piled on positive commentary ahead of its fiscal second-quarter earnings on March 18.

• The optimism spilled over to fellow memory and storage players, with Western Digital, Seagate Technology, and SanDisk rising 4.3%, 2.6%, and 6.9%, respectively, as investors bet strong demand for data storage and AI-related chips could boost the sector.

• Peel Take: Wall Street seems to believe the AI data boom still needs a lot more memory, literally. When analysts start cheering before earnings even arrive, it usually means expectations are already heating up. If Micron delivers strong guidance, the rally could keep rolling across storage names. But if results disappoint, investors might suddenly realize that chips have memory… and so do markets when expectations get too high.

What's Rotten

Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) 14.2%

• Shares of a cosmetics and fragrances retailer sank 14% after the company warned that growth would slow in the upcoming fiscal year, overshadowing strong fourth-quarter sales that beat expectations.

• Peel Take: On Wall Street, the future matters more than the past. Beating last quarter’s numbers is nice, but if management signals slower growth ahead, investors tend to reach for the sell button faster than shoppers grab a discount perfume. In other words, great makeup last quarter, but the outlook removed the market’s rosy glow.

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) 7.6%

• ADBE slumped 7.6% after longtime CEO Shantanu Narayen announced his resignation, overshadowing better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings. Narayen, a 28-year veteran of Adobe who led the company for 18 years, will remain board chair to support the incoming chief executive during the transition.

• Peel Take: Even strong earnings sometimes can’t compete with leadership uncertainty. Narayen has been one of the most stable CEOs in tech, so investors are naturally nervous about what comes next. The irony? Adobe’s numbers were solid, but markets often react more to who’s steering the ship than how fast it’s currently sailing.

🧠 Technical Trip

Interview Q&A from Centerview Partners

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🦈 Deal Dispatch

M&A, IPOs, And Other Notable Transactions

• Baidu’s BioMap is quietly preparing for a Hong Kong IPO.

• Chinese AI startup Moonshot surged to an $18B valuation.

• The U.S. Army awarded Anduril a defense deal worth up to $20B.

• The U.S. could receive a $10B windfall tied to the TikTok deal

Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

In a box of 12 pens, a total of 3 are defective. If a customer buys 2 pens selected at random from the box, what is the probability that neither pen will be defective?

Answer: 6/11

Today

J and M were each paid x dollars in advance to do a certain job together. J worked on the job for 10 hours and M worked 2 hours less than John. If M gave J y dollars of her payment so that they would have received the same hourly wage, what was the dollar amount, in terms of y, that J was paid in advance?

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Happy Investing,
Chris, Vyom, Ankit, Mitchell, Fernanda, & Patrick

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