Best Quarter Since 2023

šŸ“¦ Wall Street had had a wild quarter, ending with markets performing at their best in a single quarter since 2023.

July 01, 2025

Silver banana goes toā€¦



In this issue of the peel:

  • šŸ“¦ Wall Street had had a wild quarter, ending with markets performing at their best in a single quarter since 2023.

  • šŸ¤– Markets continue to surge as investors hold a bullish outlook on the future of the U.S. economy.

  • šŸ  The European Union is willing to accept Trumpā€™s universal 10% tariff under the condition that the U.S. commits to lower tariff rates on certain sectors.

Market Snapshot

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Macro Monkey Says

Wall Streetā€™s Hot Streak Is Back

Markets have come a long way since they were on the brink of a bear market in April as a result of Donald Trumpā€™s sweeping liberation day tariffs. Since then, stocks have recovered in an unprecedented fashion, with the S&P 500 surging 24% from its trough. 

Particularly in the last few weeks, the markets have been rising due to the positive outlook regarding the future prospects of the U.S. economy. 

For example, after Trump initially imposed his tariffs, it seemed as if every economist was predicting a U.S. recession, although now that a trade deal has been reached and inflation has yet to be realized, the economic outlook seems to be more favorable. 

An optimistic economic outlook is also currently being represented in the marketā€™s current behavior, with investors being extremely bullish towards their investments. 

Furthermore, we are seeing stock gains beyond just the ā€œmagnificent 7ā€ (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, NVDA, and TSLA), as other stocks in various sectors continue to make impressive gains. 

Assuming the U.S. economy continues to thrive, what can we expect regarding the sustainability of market growth?

Barring any kind of inflation, trade and tariff drama, and geopolitical tensions, we think the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have the potential to increase 10-15% on the year. Especially considering the deal Trump is currently making with the European Union, it looks like tariff-induced market volatility has taken a back seat (hopefully).

The Takeaway?

While nobody can say for sure what the back half of the year has in store for the markets, the U.S. economy appears to be in a decent position for equity investors. Regardless, a collapse is still possible from a reignition of the trade war or geopolitical tensions, or rising inflation within the U.S. 

Career Corner

Question

What do I bring to a superday? A backpack? A folder with my profile, paper, and pen?

Answer

At a minimum, folio with paper, pen, and extra copies of your resume. The backpack is fine; just leave it in the reception area. Donā€™t drag it with you to every interview.

Head Mentor, WSO Academy

What's Ripe

Burford Capital Limited (BUR) 22.0% 

  • A U.S. judge recently ruled that the Argentine Government must hand over 51% of its stake in YPF, its state-controlled oil and gas company, to satisfy a $16.1 billion lawsuit by YPF. 

  • Burford Capital is set to receive a significant amount of this payout, hence why their stock surged as a result of this announcement. 

Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD) 12.8% 

  • Robinhoodā€™s stock skyrocketed today as a result of the company announcing its expansion of cr*pto offerings for investors. These expansions include tokenized stock trading for European users, layer-2 blockchain, and cr*pto staking for U.S. users. 

What's Rotten

Chemed Corporation (CHE) 13.0%

  • Chemed Corporation, a holdings company, saw its share price plummet yesterday after RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) cut its price target for CHE after they cut their earnings guidance for 2025. 

YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) 5.6%

  • YPF, an oil and gas subsidiary of the Argentine government, witnessed its share price drop after it was announced that it had lost a lawsuit. As stated above, the Argentine Government is required to hand over 51% of YPF to a few different companies, including BUR. 

Thought Banana

Deal Brewing Between EU and Trump Team

A month or two ago, the Trump administration reached a deal with the European Union to pause tariffs, essentially to facilitate a trade agreement and prevent a worldwide economic collapse. 

Weā€™re just about at the deadline, which is July 9th, but thankfully, the EU and the Trump Administration are nearing a deal. The EU proposed that Trump maintain his 10% universal tariff, under the condition that the tariffs were not more than 10% for certain sectors. 

These sectors include pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft. The EU also wants the Trump Administration to lower tariffs on automobiles, which are currently at 25%, as well as tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are currently at 50%. 

According to Bloomberg, the EU and the Trump Administration are becoming ā€œincreasingly confidentā€ that a deal is going to be reached between the two parties. 

The EU is primarily pushing to lower tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum because they are a large exporter and a significant amount of its exports are to the U.S. For example, in 2024, the EU exported $62.2 billion worth of cars and car parts to the U.S., the largest amount they exported to any single country. 

The Trump Administration and the EU will continue their talks this week and possibly into next week as they grow closer to an agreement. 

The Takeaway?

We are extremely confident that the Trump Administration and the EU will be able to reach a mutually beneficial trade deal before the July 9th deadline. On the other hand, if, for whatever reason, they are unable to do so and Trumpā€™s sweeping tariffs are reinstated, markets will likely plummet. Again, that is an extremely unlikely scenario that the EU and the Trump Administration are actively working to prevent. 

The Big Question: Can the Trump team and EU strike a deal in time, or are markets one misstep away from chaos?

Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

In a box of 12 pens, a total of 3 are defective. If a customer buys 2 pens selected at random from the box, what is the probability that neither pen will be defective?

Answer: 6/11

Today

Right triangle PQR is to be constructed in the xy-plane so that the right angle is at P and PR is parallel to the x-axis. The x and y coordinates of P, Q, and R are to be integers that satisfy the inequalities -4ā‰¤xā‰¤5 and 6ā‰¤xā‰¤16. How many different triangles with these properties could be constructed?

Send your guesses to [email protected]

ā

Diligence is the mother of good luck.

Benjamin Franklin

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Happy Investing,
Chris, Vyom, Ankit, Mithun, Colin & Patrick