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Market News

The Fed Can Unclench

Wall Street got some unexpected good news: the U.S. labor market is finally cooling without falling apart. June payrolls rose by just 57,000, well below expectations, easing fears that the Fed would need to raise rates anytime soon.

The Dow jumped 1.1% to a record high, Treasury yields fell, and the dollar weakened as investors bet the Fed can stay patient for a while longer.

 

Not everything was rosy, though. Chip stocks continued to get hammered, with a semiconductor index plunging 11% in two days as investors questioned whether the AI spending boom can actually deliver the profits to justify sky-high valuations.

Meanwhile, the corporate world kept moving:

  • Anthropic is reportedly working with Samsung on custom AI chips.

  • OpenAI is discussing giving the U.S. government a 5% stake.

  • Blue Owl faced another wave of redemption requests.

  • Rivian raised its sales outlook.

Peel Take: The market is cheering a Goldilocks scenario: the labor market is cooling enough to keep the Fed patient, but not weak enough to signal a recession. Meanwhile, investors still believe in AI, but they're becoming far more selective, shifting from buying the hype to demanding profits.

What's Ripe

Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) 8.4%

  • Rivian surged 8.4% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly sales and raising its full-year outlook.

  • The upbeat guidance suggested demand for its lower-cost vehicles is gaining traction, in sharp contrast to larger rival Tesla, which has been facing slowing sales and growing competitive pressures.

  • Peel Take: The market loves a comeback story. Rivian's rally wasn't just about deliveries, but about proving it can finally execute. For at least one day, investors swapped the EV king for the EV underdog.

Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) 4.6%

  • Blue Owl rose 4.6% after capping withdrawals from some of its private credit funds following large redemption requests.

  • Investors appeared to view the move as proactive risk management rather than a sign of deeper trouble. Peers also gained, with Ares Management (+2.9%), BlackRock (+1.6%), and Blackstone (+2.7%) advancing.

  • Peel Take: By limiting withdrawals, Blue Owl is protecting remaining investors and avoiding forced asset sales. The rally suggests investors still have confidence in the long-term private credit story, even as liquidity concerns begin to creep into the sector.

What's Rotten

Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL) 9.8%

  • Chip stocks remained under pressure as investors continued rotating out of AI winners. NVIDIA fell 1.4%, Marvell Technology plunged 9.8%, and AMD dropped 4.3%, moving further away from the coveted $1 trillion market cap milestone.

  • Peel Take: The AI trade is taking a breather as investors question whether sky-high valuations can keep up with earnings growth. For now, profit-taking is replacing blind optimism across chip stocks.

Tesla Inc (TSLA) 7.5%

  • Tesla tumbled 7.5% despite delivering 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, crushing Wall Street's expectations of around 406,000.

  • The selloff appeared to be a classic case of investors "selling the good news" after the stock had already rallied for four straight sessions ahead of the announcement.

  • Peel Take: Sometimes beating expectations isn't enough; you have to beat the hype, too. Tesla delivered strong numbers, but investors had already priced in a big quarter and chose to lock in profits. It's a reminder that in high-expectation stocks like Tesla, good news can still send shares lower if the market was expecting even more.

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Investors are moving money from the Magnificent Seven into AI infrastructure. If you had to choose one, you'd invest in:

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Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

Club X has more than 10 but fewer than 40 members. Sometimes the members sit at tables with 3 members at one table and 4 members at each of the other tables, and sometimes they sit at tables with 3 members at one table and 5 members at each of the other tables. If they sit at tables with 6 members at each table except one and fewer than 6 members at that one table, how many members will be at the table that has fewer than 6 members?

Answer: 5

Today

A pharmaceutical company received $3 million in royalties on the first $20 million in sales of the generic equivalent of one of its products and then $9 million in royalties on the next $108 million in sales. By approximately what percent did the ratio of royalties to sales decrease from the first $20 million in sales to the next $108 million in sales?

Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.

John Maynard Keynes

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Happy Investing,
Chris, Ankit, Mitchell, Fernanda, Nick, & Patrick