Silver banana goes to…

In this issue of the peel:

• 📉 The verdict is in, and markets are officially cooked for the foreseeable future.

• 🫠 Recession looks like the base case at this point after yesterday’s tariff announcement.

• 🤝With TikTok’s future still in the balance, Amazon throws its hat into the race.

Market Snapshot

Banana Bits

• The list of global tariffs is in, and it’s more brutal than everyone thought.

• With markets blowing up, you might be wondering if it’s time to go to cash. Here’s how your portfolio would have looked if you had invested $10k during the financial crisis.

• Amazon sneakily submits a bid to take over social media platform TikTok.

• Apple is leading the market lower after Trump’s tariff announcement.

• Boeing’s CEO got grilled in front of the Senate yesterday.

• How Cory Booker prepared for his 25-hour record-breaking speech to Congress.

Student Spotlight

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Macro Monkey Says

The Results Are In

Welp, the day of liberation came, and it was way worse than even the most pessimistic forecasters expected. 

Tariffs were announced on pretty much every global trading partner known to man. Trump took a nice and slow approach, announcing a 10% baseline tax on imports from all countries that run a trade surplus with the US. 

That’s it? That’s not so bad. But that wasn’t it. In fact, that was just the warmup. 

Citing an “economic emergency,” he laid out tariffs on 180 countries designed to promote US manufacturing and trade, increase domestic employment, and raise tax revenue.

What was the damage? To start, Vietnam and Cambodia got the highest penalties, with the US slapping a 46% and 49% tariff on the two countries. China is getting hit up for 34%, and Japan at 24%. The point is that these tariffs are meant to right a wrong, so to speak. 

There are countries that the administration feels have been taking advantage of their relationship with the US, and these tariffs should correct trade imbalances in the long-term. 

Companies like Taiwan Semi, Apple, and Nvidia have already committed to bringing manufacturing facilities to the US for several years. The theory goes that if investment in manufacturing comes back domestically, then American workers win. 

On the other hand, this theory only works on the assumption that other countries will continue to need the US. The fear is that other nations could form their own individual relationships, effectively boxing the US out. On top of that, people are worried about the potential shock to the economic system that this could pose. 

What happens if retaliatory taxes are implemented and consumers face further pressure from rising inflation, causing a recession? And of course, there’s the logistical nightmare of it all. Tariffs are not a simple thing to implement. In reality, there are over 12,500 separate entries that apply to over 200 countries and millions of micro-relationships. 

Is the plan to create a separate tariff schedule for each good or just whack a blanket tariff charge on each country? 

Nobody has a crystal ball, so who knows what the end result will be? What we do know is that the administration plans to have other countries call to negotiate because, after all, Trump is a dealmaker at heart. 

​It will be like a long-term real-life performance art of “The Apprentice.” India has already called and proposed cutting tariffs on some US-produced goods like almonds and cranberries to avoid the US-imposed tariffs. Undoubtedly, major countries like the EU and China will try to negotiate their deals.

The Takeaway?

Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariffs are just the beginning of a complicated and unpredictable chapter in global trade. With a mix of broad tariffs, complex exemptions, and secondary sanctions, the US is setting the stage for prolonged negotiations and potential retaliation from key trading partners. 

While the aim is to boost US manufacturing and reduce trade deficits, the conflicting goals of the tariff strategy could lead to unintended consequences, like higher consumer prices and strained international relations. 

Career Corner

Question

Do you recommend purchasing LinkedIn Premium? If so, which do you think will be the main benefits?

Answer

Unlimited networking!

Head Mentor, WSO Academy

Check out WSO Academy

What's Ripe

New Fortress Energy (NFE) 13.1%

• New Fortress bounced because it caught the eye of a buyer. Excelerate Energy, a big liquefied natural gas player, agreed to acquire the company’s Jamaican operations for $1.05 billion. This provides New Fortress with some nice cash in the bank, in exchange for giving up the hassle of an asset.

Marex (MRX) 8.9%

• Marex’s stock jumped after completing its acquisition of Aarna Capital, paving the way for expansion into the Middle East. The stock brokerage company can take advantage of Aarna’s presence in Abu Dhabi, its large client list, and its access to various financial instruments like futures, options, FX, and CFD trading.

What's Rotten

NCino (NCNO) 19.7%

• ​Shares of fintech firm nCino dropped over 30% in premarket trading following terrible Q4 results. The company reported $141.4 million in revenue for Q4 2025, a 14% year-over-year increase, but a larger-than-expected loss of $0.16 per share. Adjusted earnings also fell short of expectations. Additionally, nCino’s forecasts for Q1 FY 2026 and the full fiscal year were below analyst projections, further contributing to investor concerns about its growth trajectory.

Rivian (RIVN) 5.9%

• Rivian reported a 36% year-over-year decline in first-quarter vehicle deliveries, totaling 8,640 units and slightly missing analyst expectations of 8,930. Despite it all, they maintained their full-year delivery forecast. Investors weren’t buying it. Maybe next quarter, Rivian.

Thought Banana

Amazon’s TikTok Gamble

In a move that has caught many by surprise, Amazon has reportedly submitted a last-minute bid to acquire TikTok, just days before a US ban on the app is set to take effect. 

The bid, addressed to Vice President JD Vance and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, has raised eyebrows, with some officials reportedly not taking the offer seriously.

This move places Amazon in direct competition with other high-profile bidders, including AppLovin, a mobile tech firm, and a consortium led by OnlyFans founder Tim Stokely. The upcoming TikTok ban deadline adds urgency to the situation, as failure to divest could result in TikTok being kicked out of the United States (again) due to national security concerns over its Chinese ownership.

Acquiring TikTok could significantly boost Amazon's presence in the social media environment, providing a platform to engage with a younger, trend-savvy audience. 

However, integrating TikTok's operations, user base, and content culture into Amazon's existing ecosystem would also be messy and require a lot of patience from investors. While Amazon isn’t known to back down from a challenge, the regulatory situation is pretty complicated, especially concerning national security implications and compliance with US laws.

The Takeaway? 

TikTok must find a US-domiciled buyer or face a potential ban from the country. Bidders have been popping up everywhere, from companies to individuals, like famous YouTuber “Mr. Beast.” Is Amazon's late bid a class in strategic expansion, or is it an overambitious move that could stretch the company's resources too thin? Only time will tell.

The Big Question: Could regulatory concerns prevent Amazon from finalizing a deal, even if its bid is the highest?

Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

In the first week of the year, Nancy saved $1. In each of the next 51 weeks, she saved $1 more than she had saved in the previous week. What was the total amount that Nancy saved during the previous week?

Answer: $1,378

Today

Team A and Team B are competing against each other in a game of tug-of-war. Team A, consisting of 3 males and 3 females, decides to line up male, female, male, female, male, female. The lineup that Eam A chooses will be one of how many different possible lineups?

Send your guesses to [email protected]

How Would You Rate Today's Peel?

Happy Investing,
Chris, Vyom, Ankit & Patrick

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