A Diplomatic Reset

The U.S. and Venezuela restored diplomatic ties following Maduro’s exit.

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Market Snapshot

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Market News

Oil, Chips, and Yields Rattle Markets

Stocks wobbled as chipmakers slid and oil surged, with headlines of escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran pushing crude to about $81 a barrel and stoking fresh inflation fears.

The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, even as it recovered from session lows, while a key semiconductor index dropped 1.2% after reports that the U.S. may require permits for some AI-chip exports.

The jump in energy prices also spooked bond markets, sending the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.13% for a fourth straight day of gains as traders worried that higher oil prices could complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans to cut rates. B*tcoin also slipped in the risk-off mood.

Meanwhile, jobless claims remain near one-year lows, suggesting layoffs are still muted ahead of Friday’s payrolls report. Economists expect hiring to cool slightly while unemployment remains steady.

Strategists say strong jobs data could help offset rising inflation expectations amid higher oil prices, while weak data could revive hopes of a rate cut, though it raises the specter of stagflation.

Peel Take: Oil spiking, chips sliding, and yields rising are not exactly the market’s favorite combo. Now investors are nervously watching jobs data to see whether the economy stays strong or starts to whisper the word everyone hates: stagflation.

What's Ripe

Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) 18.4%

  • TTD jumped 18%, becoming the top gainer in the S&P 500, after a report that OpenAI held early discussions with the company about potentially expanding its advertising business.

  • No partnership has been confirmed yet, and both companies stayed quiet, but investors apparently heard the word “AI + ads” and hit the buy button like it was a Black Friday sale.

  • Peel Take: If OpenAI eventually brings ads to products like ChatGPT, companies positioned in the digital ad ecosystem, like Trade Desk, could get a juicy slice of a very large advertising pie. For now, though, it’s still just talk, not a signed deal.

Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) 13.7%

  • Shares of Expedia Group rose about 14%, while Booking Holdings jumped roughly 8.5%. The move followed a report from The Information saying OpenAI may pivot away from enabling direct checkout inside ChatGPT.

  • According to analysts at Mizuho Financial Group, that’s good news for online travel agencies (OTAs). If ChatGPT doesn’t handle bookings directly, travelers would likely still search with AI but complete their bookings on platforms like Expedia or Booking, keeping those companies in the transaction loop.

  • Peel Take: AI might help you find the vacation, but for now, it looks like Expedia and Booking still get to book it and collect the commission.

What's Rotten

Ciena Corp (CIEN) 12.9%

  • Ciena shares fell about 13%, making it the worst performer in the S&P 500 on Thursday.

  • Ironically, the optical networking specialist actually reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for its fiscal first quarter. The problem? Expectations were already sky-high. The stock had surged roughly 47% this year thanks to booming demand from AI data centers, so investors were clearly hoping for something closer to fireworks than just “very good.”

  • Peel Take: In today’s AI market, beating earnings isn’t always enough; sometimes, you have to absolutely obliterate them. When expectations are flying at AI speed, even good news can feel like a slowdown.

Victoria's Secret & Co. (VSCO) 12.2%

  • A high-flying retailer’s stock dropped about 12%, even after the company beat Wall Street’s expectations on both earnings and sales and issued full-year guidance above analysts’ forecasts.

  • So what went wrong? Investors focused on rising costs and tariff pressures despite the strong results. The stock had already surged more than 100% over the past year, meaning investors were looking for a blockbuster performance—not just solid results. When a stock runs that far that fast, even good news can trigger a sell-off.

  • Peel Take: When a stock nearly triples in a year, investors stop asking for “good” and start demanding “legendary.” If earnings don’t blow the roof off, the market sometimes shows you the door instead.

🧠 Technical Trip

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Banana Brain Teaser

Previous

If 3 < x < 100, for how many values of x is x/3 the square of a prime number?

Answer: 3

Today

In order to complete a reading assignment on time, Terry planned to read 90 pages per day. However, she read only 75 pages per day at first, leaving 690 pages to be read during the last 6 days before the assignment was to be completed. How many days in all did Terry have to complete the assignment on time?

I’d be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient.

Warren Buffet

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Happy Investing,
Chris, Vyom, Ankit, Mitchell, Fernanda, & Patrick