A Big Week for Wall Street

Stocks ended Friday lower as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns ahead of key economic data and corporate earnings.

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A Big Week for Wall Street

Wall Street ended the week under pressure as surging oil prices reignited inflation fears ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. Brent crude climbed to nearly $117 per barrel on Friday as renewed violence in the Middle East threatened global energy supplies, sending stocks and bonds lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2%, while most S&P 500 companies declined despite some stabilization in technology shares. Energy stocks were a notable exception, with the S&P 500 energy sector jumping 2.5% to a record high as crude prices surged.

Chipmakers edged higher during the session but still recorded their longest weekly losing streak since November, reflecting persistent concerns over stretched AI valuations and the sustainability of massive infrastructure spending. Meanwhile, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned that investors could remain cautious until mid-November amid uncertainty surrounding AI financing, French bond markets, and the US midterm elections.

Friday's economic data added to inflation concerns. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 48.0 in October, its second-lowest reading on record, while one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%. Meanwhile, US business activity expanded at a slower pace in October, but companies reported their sharpest increase in selling prices since August 2022, suggesting inflation pressures could remain elevated.

Corporate developments painted a mixed picture across industries. Apple's nearly $2,000 foldable iPhone Duo saw strong initial demand, with online preorders selling out quickly and limited inventory available for walk-in customers. SpaceX reportedly sought access to at least 80,000 US cellular sites, highlighting its ambitions to expand into wireless communications. Meanwhile, American Express announced plans to cut approximately 5% of its global workforce as part of an effort to streamline operations, while oilfield services giant SLB reported a gradual recovery in its Middle East operations despite disruptions from the Iran conflict. Elsewhere, Bristol Myers Squibb disclosed a patient death from septic pneumonia in an early-stage trial of its experimental CAR-T therapy for multiple sclerosis, although a causal link to the treatment has not been established.

Over the weekend, Elon Musk said SpaceX had closed $40 billion in debt financing to purchase AI chips, underscoring the enormous capital requirements behind the AI infrastructure boom, although the financing's final status remained unclear. Meanwhile, oil prices retreated early Monday, with Brent falling toward $114 per barrel following reports of renewed diplomatic efforts to ease US-Iran tensions. However, supply risks remain elevated amid continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Investors now face a packed week, with the Fed expected to hold rates steady Wednesday before fresh US GDP and PCE inflation data arrive Thursday. Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon will also test investor confidence in Big Tech's massive AI infrastructure spending.

Peel Take: Wall Street is facing a difficult combination of elevated energy prices, persistent inflation, and growing skepticism toward AI valuations. With Brent approaching $117 per barrel on Friday before retreating Monday, the Fed faces a tougher balancing act between containing inflation and supporting economic growth. While corporate earnings remain resilient, investors are increasingly prioritizing profitability, financial discipline, and valuation over growth expectations, suggesting that the market's next move may depend as much on interest rates and geopolitical developments as on earnings.

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What's Ripe

SLB Ltd. (SLB) 7.08% 

  • SLB surged 7.08% after the oilfield services giant reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, supported by a gradual recovery in its Middle East operations and growing momentum in its expansion into the AI data center market.

  • Adjusted earnings of $0.64 per share beat expectations of approximately $0.62, while Middle East activity increased 13% sequentially. Its Data Center Solutions business also recorded 23% sequential revenue growth to $230 million, providing an additional avenue for growth beyond traditional energy services.

  • Peel Take: SLB is positioning itself to benefit from two major investment trends: energy demand and AI infrastructure expansion. The recovery in Middle Eastern operations supports its core oilfield services business, while its growing exposure to data centers offers an opportunity to diversify revenue streams. However, the key challenge will be turning its AI infrastructure expansion into meaningful earnings growth while navigating continued geopolitical uncertainty in energy markets.

CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) 8.25% 

  • CrowdStrike surged 8.25% Friday as cybersecurity stocks rallied following an Evercore ISI survey indicating stronger corporate security budgets heading into year-end. The survey identified CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks as leading beneficiaries of AI-driven cybersecurity spending.

  • Enterprise customers increasingly prioritized identity protection, AI governance, and cloud security, areas covered by CrowdStrike's Falcon platform. The rally also followed Mizuho's decision Thursday to raise its CrowdStrike price target to $275 from $250, citing encouraging early demand indicators for its AI security offerings.

  • Peel Take: CrowdStrike's rally highlights how AI is creating opportunities for cybersecurity companies even as investors question valuations across the broader technology sector. As businesses adopt more AI tools, demand for protecting their systems and data could continue to grow. However, with expectations already elevated, CrowdStrike will need to turn that demand into sustained revenue and earnings growth to justify its valuation.

What's Rotten

Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) 11.24%

  • Bloom Energy plunged 11.24% after the energy technology company reported approximately $181 million in negative free cash flow for the third quarter, overshadowing strong revenue growth and an upward revision to its full-year 2026 earnings guidance.

  • Revenue surged 138% to $1.24 billion, while adjusted earnings of $0.94 per share exceeded expectations. Despite these strong results, investors focused on the company's cash consumption, raising concerns about its ability to translate earnings growth into sustainable cash generation.

  • Peel Take: Bloom Energy's selloff highlights how strong earnings guidance can be overshadowed by weak cash generation. As demand for reliable power solutions grows alongside AI data center expansion, Bloom Energy has significant growth opportunities. However, investors are increasingly prioritizing free cash flow over earnings projections, putting pressure on the company to demonstrate that its growth can translate into sustainable profitability and cash generation.

American Express Co. (AXP) 3.68%

  • American Express fell 3.68% after the credit card giant announced plans to cut approximately 5% of its global workforce, while its third-quarter revenue of $20.06 billion slightly missed Wall Street expectations of $20.12 billion.

  • The company raised its full-year adjusted earnings guidance to $17.60–$17.90 per share, but investors remained concerned about rising expenses and the revenue shortfall despite stronger-than-expected earnings. Management described the workforce reductions as part of an effort to streamline operations and improve efficiency.

  • Peel Take: American Express's decline highlights how even strong earnings can be overshadowed by concerns over costs and revenue expectations. While workforce reductions could support profit margins, management described the move as an effort to improve efficiency rather than a response to weakening demand. With consumer confidence under pressure from persistent inflation, investors will be watching whether American Express can sustain spending growth among its premium cardholders while protecting profitability.

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Elie, Mitchell, Fernanda, Nick, & Patrick